A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already near +2.8 °C in early September 2026 and forecast to peak above +3.3 °C, is the dominant driver pushing September global mean temperature anomalies into the 1.35–1.49 °C range above the 1850–1900 baseline. This event exceeds prior strong episodes in onset speed and magnitude, adding an estimated 0.15–0.25 °C to global averages through enhanced tropical heat release, while a concurrent positive Indian Ocean Dipole amplifies the warming. Trader consensus remains balanced across bins because model ensembles show wide spread in the precise September value, reflecting uncertainty in peak timing, atmospheric response lag, and short-term variability around the long-term ~1.4 °C anthropogenic trend. Updated seasonal forecasts and final monthly reanalyses will clarify outcomes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासितंबर 2026 तापमान में वृद्धि (ºC)
सितंबर 2026 तापमान में वृद्धि (ºC)
<1.30ºC 48%
1.30–1.34ºC 48%
1.35–1.39ºC 48%
1.40–1.44ºC 48%
नया
नया
9 अक्टू, 2026
<1.30ºC
48%
1.30–1.34ºC
48%
1.35–1.39ºC
48%
1.40–1.44ºC
48%
1.45–1.49ºC
47%
>1.49ºC
47%
<1.30ºC 48%
1.30–1.34ºC 48%
1.35–1.39ºC 48%
1.40–1.44ºC 48%
नया
नया
9 अक्टू, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 वॉल्यूम
48%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 वॉल्यूम
48%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 वॉल्यूम
48%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 वॉल्यूम
48%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 वॉल्यूम
47%
>1.49ºC
$0 वॉल्यूम
47%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already near +2.8 °C in early September 2026 and forecast to peak above +3.3 °C, is the dominant driver pushing September global mean temperature anomalies into the 1.35–1.49 °C range above the 1850–1900 baseline. This event exceeds prior strong episodes in onset speed and magnitude, adding an estimated 0.15–0.25 °C to global averages through enhanced tropical heat release, while a concurrent positive Indian Ocean Dipole amplifies the warming. Trader consensus remains balanced across bins because model ensembles show wide spread in the precise September value, reflecting uncertainty in peak timing, atmospheric response lag, and short-term variability around the long-term ~1.4 °C anthropogenic trend. Updated seasonal forecasts and final monthly reanalyses will clarify outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
10 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already near +2.8 °C in early September 2026 and forecast to peak above +3.3 °C, is the dominant driver pushing September global mean temperature anomalies into the 1.35–1.49 °C range above the 1850–1900 baseline. This event exceeds prior strong episodes in onset speed and magnitude, adding an estimated 0.15–0.25 °C to global averages through enhanced tropical heat release, while a concurrent positive Indian Ocean Dipole amplifies the warming. Trader consensus remains balanced across bins because model ensembles show wide spread in the precise September value, reflecting uncertainty in peak timing, atmospheric response lag, and short-term variability around the long-term ~1.4 °C anthropogenic trend. Updated seasonal forecasts and final monthly reanalyses will clarify outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$0समाप्ति तिथि
10 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already near +2.8 °C in early September 2026 and forecast to peak above +3.3 °C, is the dominant driver pushing September global mean temperature anomalies into the 1.35–1.49 °C range above the 1850–1900 baseline. This event exceeds prior strong episodes in onset speed and magnitude, adding an estimated 0.15–0.25 °C to global averages through enhanced tropical heat release, while a concurrent positive Indian Ocean Dipole amplifies the warming. Trader consensus remains balanced across bins because model ensembles show wide spread in the precise September value, reflecting uncertainty in peak timing, atmospheric response lag, and short-term variability around the long-term ~1.4 °C anthropogenic trend. Updated seasonal forecasts and final monthly reanalyses will clarify outcomes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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