**Model consensus and rapid intensification of sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region now underpin the 76% market-implied odds that the 2026–27 El Niño will rank as the strongest on record.** As of mid-September 2026, weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies have reached approximately +2.9 °C, with daily values touching +3 °C in places—levels seen in only one prior event. NOAA’s September outlook assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong episode (≥ +2.0 °C) persisting through winter and 75% odds of a historic October–December peak exceeding all events since 1950 on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). Multi-model ensembles (including 667 runs from 14 systems) place the median peak near +3.6 °C, well above the 2015–16 record, driven by an unusually large subsurface heat reservoir and swift onset after the prior La Niña. The World Meteorological Organization has described the event as “supersizing before our eyes,” with some projections calling it the largest in at least 1,000 years. Traders appear to be pricing in this strong scientific agreement while recognizing that final ranking depends on the exact peak timing and measurement index used for resolution. Updated official forecasts and November–January observations will provide the next major signals.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 2026 -27 एल नीनो रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे मजबूत होगा?
क्या 2026 -27 एल नीनो रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे मजबूत होगा?
हाँ
77% संभावना
नया
नया
31 मार्च, 2027
हाँ
77% संभावना
नया
नया
31 मार्च, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/**Model consensus and rapid intensification of sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region now underpin the 76% market-implied odds that the 2026–27 El Niño will rank as the strongest on record.**
As of mid-September 2026, weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies have reached approximately +2.9 °C, with daily values touching +3 °C in places—levels seen in only one prior event. NOAA’s September outlook assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong episode (≥ +2.0 °C) persisting through winter and 75% odds of a historic October–December peak exceeding all events since 1950 on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). Multi-model ensembles (including 667 runs from 14 systems) place the median peak near +3.6 °C, well above the 2015–16 record, driven by an unusually large subsurface heat reservoir and swift onset after the prior La Niña. The World Meteorological Organization has described the event as “supersizing before our eyes,” with some projections calling it the largest in at least 1,000 years.
Traders appear to be pricing in this strong scientific agreement while recognizing that final ranking depends on the exact peak timing and measurement index used for resolution. Updated official forecasts and November–January observations will provide the next major signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$777समाप्ति तिथि
1 अप्रैल, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/**Model consensus and rapid intensification of sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region now underpin the 76% market-implied odds that the 2026–27 El Niño will rank as the strongest on record.**
As of mid-September 2026, weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies have reached approximately +2.9 °C, with daily values touching +3 °C in places—levels seen in only one prior event. NOAA’s September outlook assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong episode (≥ +2.0 °C) persisting through winter and 75% odds of a historic October–December peak exceeding all events since 1950 on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). Multi-model ensembles (including 667 runs from 14 systems) place the median peak near +3.6 °C, well above the 2015–16 record, driven by an unusually large subsurface heat reservoir and swift onset after the prior La Niña. The World Meteorological Organization has described the event as “supersizing before our eyes,” with some projections calling it the largest in at least 1,000 years.
Traders appear to be pricing in this strong scientific agreement while recognizing that final ranking depends on the exact peak timing and measurement index used for resolution. Updated official forecasts and November–January observations will provide the next major signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates. The record to beat is +2.40°C, set in DJF 1982-83, the highest RONI value for any three-month season in CPC's record. A peak RONI of exactly 2.40°C ties the record and resolves this market to "No".
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. This market may resolve immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a RONI value of above 2.40°C for any listed season.
If CPC's RONI dataset becomes temporarily unavailable, this market may be extended for up to 7 days. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If the dataset remains unavailable after 7 days and there is no consensus of credible reporting, this market resolves to "No".
No subsequent revision to a season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. The +2.40°C threshold is fixed for the purposes of this market; any later revision to a historical season's RONI value will not change it.
The resolution source for this market is the official NOAA CPC RONI updates, available here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
वॉल्यूम
$777समाप्ति तिथि
1 अप्रैल, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Sep 14, 2026, 11:23 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...**Model consensus and rapid intensification of sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region now underpin the 76% market-implied odds that the 2026–27 El Niño will rank as the strongest on record.** As of mid-September 2026, weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies have reached approximately +2.9 °C, with daily values touching +3 °C in places—levels seen in only one prior event. NOAA’s September outlook assigns greater than 90% probability to a very strong episode (≥ +2.0 °C) persisting through winter and 75% odds of a historic October–December peak exceeding all events since 1950 on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). Multi-model ensembles (including 667 runs from 14 systems) place the median peak near +3.6 °C, well above the 2015–16 record, driven by an unusually large subsurface heat reservoir and swift onset after the prior La Niña. The World Meteorological Organization has described the event as “supersizing before our eyes,” with some projections calling it the largest in at least 1,000 years. Traders appear to be pricing in this strong scientific agreement while recognizing that final ranking depends on the exact peak timing and measurement index used for resolution. Updated official forecasts and November–January observations will provide the next major signals.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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