The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by El Niño-enhanced wind shear and below-average accumulated cyclone energy, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official National Hurricane Center data show zero hurricanes formed through mid-September—the latest such drought in the satellite era—with only weak named storms like Fay developing far from land. Historical records confirm just four mainland Category 5 landfalls since 1851 (1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), yielding a baseline annual rate near 2–3%. Late-season formation remains possible but faces unfavorable steering patterns and cooler waters that limit rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 thresholds (≥157 mph sustained winds). Any reversal would require an abrupt shift in atmospheric conditions or an unusually strong November system making precise landfall, both low-probability outcomes per current model consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या कोई श्रेणी 5 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
क्या कोई श्रेणी 5 का तूफान 2027 से पहले अमेरिका में दस्तक देगा?
हाँ
3% संभावना
$142,105 वॉल्यूम
$142,105 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
3% संभावना
$142,105 वॉल्यूम
$142,105 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by El Niño-enhanced wind shear and below-average accumulated cyclone energy, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official National Hurricane Center data show zero hurricanes formed through mid-September—the latest such drought in the satellite era—with only weak named storms like Fay developing far from land. Historical records confirm just four mainland Category 5 landfalls since 1851 (1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), yielding a baseline annual rate near 2–3%. Late-season formation remains possible but faces unfavorable steering patterns and cooler waters that limit rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 thresholds (≥157 mph sustained winds). Any reversal would require an abrupt shift in atmospheric conditions or an unusually strong November system making precise landfall, both low-probability outcomes per current model consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$142,105समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by El Niño-enhanced wind shear and below-average accumulated cyclone energy, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official National Hurricane Center data show zero hurricanes formed through mid-September—the latest such drought in the satellite era—with only weak named storms like Fay developing far from land. Historical records confirm just four mainland Category 5 landfalls since 1851 (1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), yielding a baseline annual rate near 2–3%. Late-season formation remains possible but faces unfavorable steering patterns and cooler waters that limit rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 thresholds (≥157 mph sustained winds). Any reversal would require an abrupt shift in atmospheric conditions or an unusually strong November system making precise landfall, both low-probability outcomes per current model consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
वॉल्यूम
$142,105समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by El Niño-enhanced wind shear and below-average accumulated cyclone energy, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official National Hurricane Center data show zero hurricanes formed through mid-September—the latest such drought in the satellite era—with only weak named storms like Fay developing far from land. Historical records confirm just four mainland Category 5 landfalls since 1851 (1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018), yielding a baseline annual rate near 2–3%. Late-season formation remains possible but faces unfavorable steering patterns and cooler waters that limit rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 thresholds (≥157 mph sustained winds). Any reversal would require an abrupt shift in atmospheric conditions or an unusually strong November system making precise landfall, both low-probability outcomes per current model consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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