Trader consensus favoring a 79.5% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. Official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center shows no such intense landfalls despite an active season influenced by ongoing El Niño conditions, while USGS and global seismic networks report no events meeting the magnitude threshold. Historical baselines indicate these extremes occur infrequently, with VEI 6+ eruptions and 8.5+ quakes averaging well below one per year globally. Remaining hurricane activity and continuous seismic/volcanic surveillance through December represent the key variables that could still shift odds before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में प्राकृतिक आपदा?
2026 में प्राकृतिक आपदा?
हाँ
21% संभावना
$246,739 वॉल्यूम
$246,739 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
21% संभावना
$246,739 वॉल्यूम
$246,739 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring a 79.5% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. Official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center shows no such intense landfalls despite an active season influenced by ongoing El Niño conditions, while USGS and global seismic networks report no events meeting the magnitude threshold. Historical baselines indicate these extremes occur infrequently, with VEI 6+ eruptions and 8.5+ quakes averaging well below one per year globally. Remaining hurricane activity and continuous seismic/volcanic surveillance through December represent the key variables that could still shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$246,739समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring a 79.5% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. Official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center shows no such intense landfalls despite an active season influenced by ongoing El Niño conditions, while USGS and global seismic networks report no events meeting the magnitude threshold. Historical baselines indicate these extremes occur infrequently, with VEI 6+ eruptions and 8.5+ quakes averaging well below one per year globally. Remaining hurricane activity and continuous seismic/volcanic surveillance through December represent the key variables that could still shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
वॉल्यूम
$246,739समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring a 79.5% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. Official monitoring by the National Hurricane Center shows no such intense landfalls despite an active season influenced by ongoing El Niño conditions, while USGS and global seismic networks report no events meeting the magnitude threshold. Historical baselines indicate these extremes occur infrequently, with VEI 6+ eruptions and 8.5+ quakes averaging well below one per year globally. Remaining hurricane activity and continuous seismic/volcanic surveillance through December represent the key variables that could still shift odds before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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