Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth remains closely divided between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges, reflecting uncertainty around the 2% threshold amid mixed signals. Recent Q2 data showed 1.5% annualized growth, while consensus forecasts from the Fed’s June SEP, CBO, and private analysts cluster near 2.0–2.2%, supported by robust AI-related capital expenditures and business investment. Counterbalancing factors include elevated inflation—headline PCE near 3.7% and CPI around 3.3%—driven by energy prices and tariffs, alongside a stable but softening labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3%. Market-implied odds embed expectations for steady or tighter Fed policy, with upcoming September FOMC projections and labor/inflation releases likely to shift probabilities between these two central bins.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में जीडीपी की वृद्धि
2026 में जीडीपी की वृद्धि
1.5–2.0% 47.9%
2.0–2.5% 46%
>2.5% 4.7%
<0.5% 3.2%
$60,548 वॉल्यूम
$60,548 वॉल्यूम
28 जन, 2027
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
2%
1.5–2.0%
48%
2.0–2.5%
46%
>2.5%
5%
1.5–2.0% 47.9%
2.0–2.5% 46%
>2.5% 4.7%
<0.5% 3.2%
$60,548 वॉल्यूम
$60,548 वॉल्यूम
28 जन, 2027
<0.5%
$7,659 वॉल्यूम
3%
0.5–1.0%
$17,367 वॉल्यूम
1%
1.0–1.5%
$3,951 वॉल्यूम
2%
1.5–2.0%
$7,576 वॉल्यूम
48%
2.0–2.5%
$7,867 वॉल्यूम
46%
>2.5%
$16,129 वॉल्यूम
5%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth remains closely divided between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges, reflecting uncertainty around the 2% threshold amid mixed signals. Recent Q2 data showed 1.5% annualized growth, while consensus forecasts from the Fed’s June SEP, CBO, and private analysts cluster near 2.0–2.2%, supported by robust AI-related capital expenditures and business investment. Counterbalancing factors include elevated inflation—headline PCE near 3.7% and CPI around 3.3%—driven by energy prices and tariffs, alongside a stable but softening labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3%. Market-implied odds embed expectations for steady or tighter Fed policy, with upcoming September FOMC projections and labor/inflation releases likely to shift probabilities between these two central bins.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$60,548समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth remains closely divided between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges, reflecting uncertainty around the 2% threshold amid mixed signals. Recent Q2 data showed 1.5% annualized growth, while consensus forecasts from the Fed’s June SEP, CBO, and private analysts cluster near 2.0–2.2%, supported by robust AI-related capital expenditures and business investment. Counterbalancing factors include elevated inflation—headline PCE near 3.7% and CPI around 3.3%—driven by energy prices and tariffs, alongside a stable but softening labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3%. Market-implied odds embed expectations for steady or tighter Fed policy, with upcoming September FOMC projections and labor/inflation releases likely to shift probabilities between these two central bins.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
वॉल्यूम
$60,548समाप्ति तिथि
29 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth remains closely divided between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges, reflecting uncertainty around the 2% threshold amid mixed signals. Recent Q2 data showed 1.5% annualized growth, while consensus forecasts from the Fed’s June SEP, CBO, and private analysts cluster near 2.0–2.2%, supported by robust AI-related capital expenditures and business investment. Counterbalancing factors include elevated inflation—headline PCE near 3.7% and CPI around 3.3%—driven by energy prices and tariffs, alongside a stable but softening labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3%. Market-implied odds embed expectations for steady or tighter Fed policy, with upcoming September FOMC projections and labor/inflation releases likely to shift probabilities between these two central bins.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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