Recent September CPI data showing a 0.3% core monthly gain and 0.6% headline advance, driven by broad-based strength in services and goods plus a gasoline spike, has lifted analyst estimates for the corresponding core PCE reading to the 0.32–0.36% range. This follows August core PCE at 0.2% and aligns closely with the 0.3% outcome commanding 63.5% market-implied odds. Traders appear to view the CPI surprise as the dominant input for the Bureau of Economic Analysis release due October 29, while softer PPI components have tempered some forecasts. The 0.4% outcome at 25% reflects residual upside risks from supercore persistence, whereas lower probabilities on 0.2% or below capture the reduced likelihood of a cooling print after the latest inflation reacceleration.