Recent U.S. labor market resilience, including August payroll gains of 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation above the 2% target amid supply shocks, underpins the near-even market-implied odds for the December FOMC meeting. Traders price roughly balanced probabilities between no change and a 25 basis point hike as incoming data and central bank communications under Chair Kevin Warsh test whether rate pressure will build further or ease. Elevated Treasury yields and recent hawkish shifts in economist forecasts reflect these competing forces, with the September FOMC outcome and upcoming CPI releases likely to clarify the path. Uncertainty around growth momentum and geopolitical factors keeps the outcome contested.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 6.5%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$569,204 वॉल्यूम
$569,204 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
6%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
48%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
3%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 48%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 6.5%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$569,204 वॉल्यूम
$569,204 वॉल्यूम
9 दिस, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$92,690 वॉल्यूम
1%
25 bps decrease
$144,402 वॉल्यूम
6%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$101,819 वॉल्यूम
48%
25 bps increase
$139,606 वॉल्यूम
44%
50+ bps increase
$90,687 वॉल्यूम
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. labor market resilience, including August payroll gains of 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation above the 2% target amid supply shocks, underpins the near-even market-implied odds for the December FOMC meeting. Traders price roughly balanced probabilities between no change and a 25 basis point hike as incoming data and central bank communications under Chair Kevin Warsh test whether rate pressure will build further or ease. Elevated Treasury yields and recent hawkish shifts in economist forecasts reflect these competing forces, with the September FOMC outcome and upcoming CPI releases likely to clarify the path. Uncertainty around growth momentum and geopolitical factors keeps the outcome contested.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$569,204समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. labor market resilience, including August payroll gains of 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation above the 2% target amid supply shocks, underpins the near-even market-implied odds for the December FOMC meeting. Traders price roughly balanced probabilities between no change and a 25 basis point hike as incoming data and central bank communications under Chair Kevin Warsh test whether rate pressure will build further or ease. Elevated Treasury yields and recent hawkish shifts in economist forecasts reflect these competing forces, with the September FOMC outcome and upcoming CPI releases likely to clarify the path. Uncertainty around growth momentum and geopolitical factors keeps the outcome contested.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$569,204समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. labor market resilience, including August payroll gains of 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation above the 2% target amid supply shocks, underpins the near-even market-implied odds for the December FOMC meeting. Traders price roughly balanced probabilities between no change and a 25 basis point hike as incoming data and central bank communications under Chair Kevin Warsh test whether rate pressure will build further or ease. Elevated Treasury yields and recent hawkish shifts in economist forecasts reflect these competing forces, with the September FOMC outcome and upcoming CPI releases likely to clarify the path. Uncertainty around growth momentum and geopolitical factors keeps the outcome contested.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न