**Summer 2026 set a new UK record for mean temperature at 16.5°C across June–August, exceeding the 2025 mark of 16.1°C and placing it well ahead of prior benchmarks like 2018 and 2006.** Provisional Met Office data confirm this as the warmest summer since records began in 1884, driven by five widespread heatwaves, nine days above 35°C (nearly double the previous record), and peaks reaching 38.1–38.2°C. Human-induced climate change made such extreme warmth approximately 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. Attribution studies and observational trends from the National Climate Information Centre underpin trader consensus near 98%, with final verification unlikely to alter the ranking given the margin over historical analogs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'été 2026 sera-t-il l'été le plus chaud jamais enregistré au Royaume-Uni ?
L'été 2026 sera-t-il l'été le plus chaud jamais enregistré au Royaume-Uni ?
98% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
98% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.**Summer 2026 set a new UK record for mean temperature at 16.5°C across June–August, exceeding the 2025 mark of 16.1°C and placing it well ahead of prior benchmarks like 2018 and 2006.** Provisional Met Office data confirm this as the warmest summer since records began in 1884, driven by five widespread heatwaves, nine days above 35°C (nearly double the previous record), and peaks reaching 38.1–38.2°C. Human-induced climate change made such extreme warmth approximately 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. Attribution studies and observational trends from the National Climate Information Centre underpin trader consensus near 98%, with final verification unlikely to alter the ranking given the margin over historical analogs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$1,704Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.**Summer 2026 set a new UK record for mean temperature at 16.5°C across June–August, exceeding the 2025 mark of 16.1°C and placing it well ahead of prior benchmarks like 2018 and 2006.** Provisional Met Office data confirm this as the warmest summer since records began in 1884, driven by five widespread heatwaves, nine days above 35°C (nearly double the previous record), and peaks reaching 38.1–38.2°C. Human-induced climate change made such extreme warmth approximately 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. Attribution studies and observational trends from the National Climate Information Centre underpin trader consensus near 98%, with final verification unlikely to alter the ranking given the margin over historical analogs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,704Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Summer 2026 set a new UK record for mean temperature at 16.5°C across June–August, exceeding the 2025 mark of 16.1°C and placing it well ahead of prior benchmarks like 2018 and 2006.** Provisional Met Office data confirm this as the warmest summer since records began in 1884, driven by five widespread heatwaves, nine days above 35°C (nearly double the previous record), and peaks reaching 38.1–38.2°C. Human-induced climate change made such extreme warmth approximately 130 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. Attribution studies and observational trends from the National Climate Information Centre underpin trader consensus near 98%, with final verification unlikely to alter the ranking given the margin over historical analogs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes