Anthropic holds an 82.5% implied probability on the LiveBench coding category through end of October because its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 family models have posted leading scores on contamination-resistant coding evaluations, including 96% on SWE-bench Verified and top-tier results in agentic coding subsets. These releases demonstrate consistent gains in code generation, repository navigation, and multi-step debugging that traders view as durable advantages over OpenAI’s GPT-5.x Codex variants and other frontier systems. With only weeks remaining before the October snapshot, limited new model drops or benchmark refreshes are expected, reinforcing the current market consensus while leaving modest room for a late OpenAI capability jump to narrow the gap.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 83%
OpenAI 4.9%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$19,122 Vol.
$19,122 Vol.

Anthropic
83%

OpenAI
9%

SpaceXAI
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%

<1%

Nvidia
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Tencent
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Meta
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 83%
OpenAI 4.9%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$19,122 Vol.
$19,122 Vol.

Anthropic
83%

OpenAI
9%

SpaceXAI
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%

<1%

Nvidia
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Tencent
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Meta
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an 82.5% implied probability on the LiveBench coding category through end of October because its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 family models have posted leading scores on contamination-resistant coding evaluations, including 96% on SWE-bench Verified and top-tier results in agentic coding subsets. These releases demonstrate consistent gains in code generation, repository navigation, and multi-step debugging that traders view as durable advantages over OpenAI’s GPT-5.x Codex variants and other frontier systems. With only weeks remaining before the October snapshot, limited new model drops or benchmark refreshes are expected, reinforcing the current market consensus while leaving modest room for a late OpenAI capability jump to narrow the gap.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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