Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8/5 series models currently post the strongest coding-specific results on LiveBench variants, including high marks on code generation and completion subtasks, driving the 87.5% market-implied probability. OpenAI's o3-mini and GPT-5.x family lead overall LiveBench scores near 84-87% as of September 21 but trail in several coding-focused breakdowns, consistent with the 10.8% odds. Recent September releases and max-effort evaluations from both labs have tightened the gap, while lower-priced Chinese models like Qwen3 and GLM variants remain competitive on cost-adjusted metrics but lag frontier coding benchmarks. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting demonstrated coding agentic performance and latest official updates most heavily.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 87.5%
OpenAI 10.8%
SpaceXAI 1.8%
Meta <1%
$62,173 Vol.
$62,173 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Anthropic
88%
OpenAI
11%
SpaceXAI
2%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 87.5%
OpenAI 10.8%
SpaceXAI 1.8%
Meta <1%
$62,173 Vol.
$62,173 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Anthropic
$21,896 Vol.
88%
OpenAI
$20,318 Vol.
11%
SpaceXAI
$3,129 Vol.
2%
Meta
$3,162 Vol.
<1%
$378 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$777 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$791 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$517 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,144 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$838 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$810 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$860 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$886 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,293 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$811 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$912 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$428 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,096 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$937 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$839 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$348 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8/5 series models currently post the strongest coding-specific results on LiveBench variants, including high marks on code generation and completion subtasks, driving the 87.5% market-implied probability. OpenAI's o3-mini and GPT-5.x family lead overall LiveBench scores near 84-87% as of September 21 but trail in several coding-focused breakdowns, consistent with the 10.8% odds. Recent September releases and max-effort evaluations from both labs have tightened the gap, while lower-priced Chinese models like Qwen3 and GLM variants remain competitive on cost-adjusted metrics but lag frontier coding benchmarks. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting demonstrated coding agentic performance and latest official updates most heavily.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$62,173Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETSource de résolution
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8/5 series models currently post the strongest coding-specific results on LiveBench variants, including high marks on code generation and completion subtasks, driving the 87.5% market-implied probability. OpenAI's o3-mini and GPT-5.x family lead overall LiveBench scores near 84-87% as of September 21 but trail in several coding-focused breakdowns, consistent with the 10.8% odds. Recent September releases and max-effort evaluations from both labs have tightened the gap, while lower-priced Chinese models like Qwen3 and GLM variants remain competitive on cost-adjusted metrics but lag frontier coding benchmarks. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting demonstrated coding agentic performance and latest official updates most heavily.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$62,173Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETSource de résolution
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8/5 series models currently post the strongest coding-specific results on LiveBench variants, including high marks on code generation and completion subtasks, driving the 87.5% market-implied probability. OpenAI's o3-mini and GPT-5.x family lead overall LiveBench scores near 84-87% as of September 21 but trail in several coding-focused breakdowns, consistent with the 10.8% odds. Recent September releases and max-effort evaluations from both labs have tightened the gap, while lower-priced Chinese models like Qwen3 and GLM variants remain competitive on cost-adjusted metrics but lag frontier coding benchmarks. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting demonstrated coding agentic performance and latest official updates most heavily.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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