Meta's aggressive release cadence for Muse Spark drives current trader sentiment on the 1.4+ timeline. The company shipped 1.3 on September 2 via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, delivering gains in long-horizon agentic tasks, coding benchmarks like DeepSWE, and efficiency with roughly 20% fewer tool calls and 25% fewer tokens than 1.2. This follows 1.1 in July and 1.2 in early August from Meta Superintelligence Labs, reflecting a deliberate push toward frontier multimodal reasoning models with 1M-token context and multi-agent orchestration. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic on API pricing and capabilities, plus Zuckerberg's hints at larger models like "Watermelon" and eventual open weights, supports expectations of continued rapid iteration. Key near-term catalysts include developer feedback on the new API tier and any safety or scaling updates that could accelerate or delay the next proprietary release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre
22%
31 octobre
88%
$9,101 Vol.
30 septembre
$5,075 Vol.
22%
31 octobre
$4,027 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's aggressive release cadence for Muse Spark drives current trader sentiment on the 1.4+ timeline. The company shipped 1.3 on September 2 via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, delivering gains in long-horizon agentic tasks, coding benchmarks like DeepSWE, and efficiency with roughly 20% fewer tool calls and 25% fewer tokens than 1.2. This follows 1.1 in July and 1.2 in early August from Meta Superintelligence Labs, reflecting a deliberate push toward frontier multimodal reasoning models with 1M-token context and multi-agent orchestration. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic on API pricing and capabilities, plus Zuckerberg's hints at larger models like "Watermelon" and eventual open weights, supports expectations of continued rapid iteration. Key near-term catalysts include developer feedback on the new API tier and any safety or scaling updates that could accelerate or delay the next proprietary release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Sep 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
Volume
$9,101Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's aggressive release cadence for Muse Spark drives current trader sentiment on the 1.4+ timeline. The company shipped 1.3 on September 2 via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, delivering gains in long-horizon agentic tasks, coding benchmarks like DeepSWE, and efficiency with roughly 20% fewer tool calls and 25% fewer tokens than 1.2. This follows 1.1 in July and 1.2 in early August from Meta Superintelligence Labs, reflecting a deliberate push toward frontier multimodal reasoning models with 1M-token context and multi-agent orchestration. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic on API pricing and capabilities, plus Zuckerberg's hints at larger models like "Watermelon" and eventual open weights, supports expectations of continued rapid iteration. Key near-term catalysts include developer feedback on the new API tier and any safety or scaling updates that could accelerate or delay the next proprietary release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,101Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Meta's aggressive release cadence for Muse Spark drives current trader sentiment on the 1.4+ timeline. The company shipped 1.3 on September 2 via the Meta Model API and Muse Code, delivering gains in long-horizon agentic tasks, coding benchmarks like DeepSWE, and efficiency with roughly 20% fewer tool calls and 25% fewer tokens than 1.2. This follows 1.1 in July and 1.2 in early August from Meta Superintelligence Labs, reflecting a deliberate push toward frontier multimodal reasoning models with 1M-token context and multi-agent orchestration. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic on API pricing and capabilities, plus Zuckerberg's hints at larger models like "Watermelon" and eventual open weights, supports expectations of continued rapid iteration. Key near-term catalysts include developer feedback on the new API tier and any safety or scaling updates that could accelerate or delay the next proprietary release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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