Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1 have solidified its lead in frontier large language model performance, driving the 75% market-implied probability that the company holds the top spot by end of October. These Mythos-class models top independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign leaderboards, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work through advances in adaptive thinking and long-context handling. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra series remains the closest rival but trails slightly on composite scores, while Google, Meta, and others sit further behind amid slower recent progress. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent edge and rapid iteration pace against the possibility of a surprise October release from competitors shifting the leaderboard before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 75%
OpenAI 16.8%
Meta 4.5%
Google 2.7%
$18,758 Vol.
$18,758 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
75%
OpenAI
17%
Meta
5%
3%
Baidu
2%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Nvidia
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 75%
OpenAI 16.8%
Meta 4.5%
Google 2.7%
$18,758 Vol.
$18,758 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
$12,580 Vol.
75%
OpenAI
$448 Vol.
17%
Meta
$283 Vol.
5%
$325 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$166 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$326 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$357 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$366 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$290 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$247 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$307 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$286 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$283 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$302 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$328 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$294 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$286 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$287 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$422 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$290 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$287 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1 have solidified its lead in frontier large language model performance, driving the 75% market-implied probability that the company holds the top spot by end of October. These Mythos-class models top independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign leaderboards, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work through advances in adaptive thinking and long-context handling. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra series remains the closest rival but trails slightly on composite scores, while Google, Meta, and others sit further behind amid slower recent progress. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent edge and rapid iteration pace against the possibility of a surprise October release from competitors shifting the leaderboard before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$18,758Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1 have solidified its lead in frontier large language model performance, driving the 75% market-implied probability that the company holds the top spot by end of October. These Mythos-class models top independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign leaderboards, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work through advances in adaptive thinking and long-context handling. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra series remains the closest rival but trails slightly on composite scores, while Google, Meta, and others sit further behind amid slower recent progress. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent edge and rapid iteration pace against the possibility of a surprise October release from competitors shifting the leaderboard before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$18,758Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1 have solidified its lead in frontier large language model performance, driving the 75% market-implied probability that the company holds the top spot by end of October. These Mythos-class models top independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and BenchAlign leaderboards, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge work through advances in adaptive thinking and long-context handling. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra series remains the closest rival but trails slightly on composite scores, while Google, Meta, and others sit further behind amid slower recent progress. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic’s consistent edge and rapid iteration pace against the possibility of a surprise October release from competitors shifting the leaderboard before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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