Recent readings of Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) have held at 1.7% year-over-year in August 2026, down from 1.8% in July and below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the eighth straight month, with government energy subsidies exerting downward pressure on the index. Market-implied odds heavily favor outcomes at or below 1.9%, reflecting trader consensus that these temporary measures, combined with moderating food price gains, will keep the 2026 average subdued despite a firmer core-core measure near 1.9%. The BoJ's latest projections anticipate underlying inflation accelerating above 2% only in the second half of fiscal 2026 amid ongoing rate normalization, while near-term data releases and subsidy extensions remain key swing factors for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour≤1,9 % 71.0%
2.0-2.4% 19%
2,5-2,9 % 7.1%
3,5-3,9 % 1.2%
$45,976 Vol.
$45,976 Vol.
22 janv. 2027
≤1,9 %
71%
2.0-2.4%
19%
2,5-2,9 %
7%
3.0-3.4%
<1%
3,5-3,9 %
1%
4.0%+
1%
≤1,9 % 71.0%
2.0-2.4% 19%
2,5-2,9 % 7.1%
3,5-3,9 % 1.2%
$45,976 Vol.
$45,976 Vol.
22 janv. 2027
≤1,9 %
$22,952 Vol.
71%
2.0-2.4%
$12,208 Vol.
19%
2,5-2,9 %
$5,934 Vol.
7%
3.0-3.4%
$1,884 Vol.
<1%
3,5-3,9 %
$1,324 Vol.
1%
4.0%+
$1,675 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent readings of Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) have held at 1.7% year-over-year in August 2026, down from 1.8% in July and below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the eighth straight month, with government energy subsidies exerting downward pressure on the index. Market-implied odds heavily favor outcomes at or below 1.9%, reflecting trader consensus that these temporary measures, combined with moderating food price gains, will keep the 2026 average subdued despite a firmer core-core measure near 1.9%. The BoJ's latest projections anticipate underlying inflation accelerating above 2% only in the second half of fiscal 2026 amid ongoing rate normalization, while near-term data releases and subsidy extensions remain key swing factors for resolution.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$45,976Date de fin
22 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent readings of Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) have held at 1.7% year-over-year in August 2026, down from 1.8% in July and below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the eighth straight month, with government energy subsidies exerting downward pressure on the index. Market-implied odds heavily favor outcomes at or below 1.9%, reflecting trader consensus that these temporary measures, combined with moderating food price gains, will keep the 2026 average subdued despite a firmer core-core measure near 1.9%. The BoJ's latest projections anticipate underlying inflation accelerating above 2% only in the second half of fiscal 2026 amid ongoing rate normalization, while near-term data releases and subsidy extensions remain key swing factors for resolution.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$45,976Date de fin
22 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent readings of Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) have held at 1.7% year-over-year in August 2026, down from 1.8% in July and below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the eighth straight month, with government energy subsidies exerting downward pressure on the index. Market-implied odds heavily favor outcomes at or below 1.9%, reflecting trader consensus that these temporary measures, combined with moderating food price gains, will keep the 2026 average subdued despite a firmer core-core measure near 1.9%. The BoJ's latest projections anticipate underlying inflation accelerating above 2% only in the second half of fiscal 2026 amid ongoing rate normalization, while near-term data releases and subsidy extensions remain key swing factors for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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