The market-implied odds center on a 2.4% or 2.5% year-over-year Core CPI print for September 2026, consistent with the August outcome of 2.4% and the Cleveland Fed nowcast near 2.39%. The August report featured a firmer 0.29% monthly core advance—above the 0.2% consensus—driven by wireless services, airfares, and autos, even as shelter inflation eased to 3.0% and the annual rate declined from 2.5%. This mixed data has anchored trader expectations around recent levels rather than further rapid disinflation, with the September BLS release on October 14 serving as the immediate catalyst. Aggregated real-money positioning reflects the balance between persistent services pressures and moderating goods trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2,4 % 46%
2,5 % 29%
2,3 % 15%
2,6 % 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
≤2,0 %
<1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
1%
2,3 %
15%
2,4 %
46%
2,5 %
29%
2,6 %
14%
2,7 %
1%
2,8 %
1%
≥2,9 %
2%
2,4 % 46%
2,5 % 29%
2,3 % 15%
2,6 % 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
≤2,0 %
$331 Vol.
<1%
2,1 %
$324 Vol.
<1%
2,2 %
$398 Vol.
1%
2,3 %
$1,541 Vol.
15%
2,4 %
$2,695 Vol.
46%
2,5 %
$1,151 Vol.
29%
2,6 %
$992 Vol.
14%
2,7 %
$381 Vol.
1%
2,8 %
$341 Vol.
1%
≥2,9 %
$559 Vol.
2%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The market-implied odds center on a 2.4% or 2.5% year-over-year Core CPI print for September 2026, consistent with the August outcome of 2.4% and the Cleveland Fed nowcast near 2.39%. The August report featured a firmer 0.29% monthly core advance—above the 0.2% consensus—driven by wireless services, airfares, and autos, even as shelter inflation eased to 3.0% and the annual rate declined from 2.5%. This mixed data has anchored trader expectations around recent levels rather than further rapid disinflation, with the September BLS release on October 14 serving as the immediate catalyst. Aggregated real-money positioning reflects the balance between persistent services pressures and moderating goods trends.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ET
Volume
$8,713Date de fin
15 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The market-implied odds center on a 2.4% or 2.5% year-over-year Core CPI print for September 2026, consistent with the August outcome of 2.4% and the Cleveland Fed nowcast near 2.39%. The August report featured a firmer 0.29% monthly core advance—above the 0.2% consensus—driven by wireless services, airfares, and autos, even as shelter inflation eased to 3.0% and the annual rate declined from 2.5%. This mixed data has anchored trader expectations around recent levels rather than further rapid disinflation, with the September BLS release on October 14 serving as the immediate catalyst. Aggregated real-money positioning reflects the balance between persistent services pressures and moderating goods trends.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$8,713Date de fin
15 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds center on a 2.4% or 2.5% year-over-year Core CPI print for September 2026, consistent with the August outcome of 2.4% and the Cleveland Fed nowcast near 2.39%. The August report featured a firmer 0.29% monthly core advance—above the 0.2% consensus—driven by wireless services, airfares, and autos, even as shelter inflation eased to 3.0% and the annual rate declined from 2.5%. This mixed data has anchored trader expectations around recent levels rather than further rapid disinflation, with the September BLS release on October 14 serving as the immediate catalyst. Aggregated real-money positioning reflects the balance between persistent services pressures and moderating goods trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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