**Traders assign a 94.5% probability to no coup attempt in Russia during 2026 because the regime has shown continued resilience amid internal frictions and wartime strains.** Recent personnel shifts within the FSB, including the abrupt departure of Sergei Alpatov from the Economic Security Service in mid-September, reflect factional competition over influence rather than organized opposition to Putin. Ukrainian intelligence reports divisions in the elite over war strategy and notes Putin’s caution toward oligarchs, yet these assessments have not translated into verifiable plots or military defections. State Duma elections proceeded on schedule in September without disruption, and official statements emphasize institutional stability despite fuel shortages and Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. Historical precedent from the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny and the absence of comparable challenges this year reinforce the market’s view that barriers to a successful coordinated effort remain high through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRussia coup attempt in 2026?
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
6% chance
$131,224 Vol.
$131,224 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
6% chance
$131,224 Vol.
$131,224 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign a 94.5% probability to no coup attempt in Russia during 2026 because the regime has shown continued resilience amid internal frictions and wartime strains.** Recent personnel shifts within the FSB, including the abrupt departure of Sergei Alpatov from the Economic Security Service in mid-September, reflect factional competition over influence rather than organized opposition to Putin. Ukrainian intelligence reports divisions in the elite over war strategy and notes Putin’s caution toward oligarchs, yet these assessments have not translated into verifiable plots or military defections. State Duma elections proceeded on schedule in September without disruption, and official statements emphasize institutional stability despite fuel shortages and Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. Historical precedent from the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny and the absence of comparable challenges this year reinforce the market’s view that barriers to a successful coordinated effort remain high through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$131,224Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign a 94.5% probability to no coup attempt in Russia during 2026 because the regime has shown continued resilience amid internal frictions and wartime strains.** Recent personnel shifts within the FSB, including the abrupt departure of Sergei Alpatov from the Economic Security Service in mid-September, reflect factional competition over influence rather than organized opposition to Putin. Ukrainian intelligence reports divisions in the elite over war strategy and notes Putin’s caution toward oligarchs, yet these assessments have not translated into verifiable plots or military defections. State Duma elections proceeded on schedule in September without disruption, and official statements emphasize institutional stability despite fuel shortages and Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. Historical precedent from the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny and the absence of comparable challenges this year reinforce the market’s view that barriers to a successful coordinated effort remain high through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$131,224Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 94.5% probability to no coup attempt in Russia during 2026 because the regime has shown continued resilience amid internal frictions and wartime strains.** Recent personnel shifts within the FSB, including the abrupt departure of Sergei Alpatov from the Economic Security Service in mid-September, reflect factional competition over influence rather than organized opposition to Putin. Ukrainian intelligence reports divisions in the elite over war strategy and notes Putin’s caution toward oligarchs, yet these assessments have not translated into verifiable plots or military defections. State Duma elections proceeded on schedule in September without disruption, and official statements emphasize institutional stability despite fuel shortages and Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure. Historical precedent from the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny and the absence of comparable challenges this year reinforce the market’s view that barriers to a successful coordinated effort remain high through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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