Xi Jinping’s sustained anti-corruption purges within the People’s Liberation Army and Central Military Commission have removed dozens of senior officers since 2025, including multiple vice chairmen, leaving a highly centralized command structure loyal to the top leadership. This consolidation, alongside routine signals of party discipline ahead of the 2027 national congress, underpins the 96.5 percent trader consensus against a coup attempt by year-end 2026. Credible reporting has documented no coordinated military or elite effort meeting the market’s definition of an attempt. Remaining uncertainty stems from opaque succession dynamics or sudden external shocks that could fracture elite cohesion, though such developments have not materialized in verifiable form.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
4% chance
$155,515 Vol.
$155,515 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$155,515 Vol.
$155,515 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained anti-corruption purges within the People’s Liberation Army and Central Military Commission have removed dozens of senior officers since 2025, including multiple vice chairmen, leaving a highly centralized command structure loyal to the top leadership. This consolidation, alongside routine signals of party discipline ahead of the 2027 national congress, underpins the 96.5 percent trader consensus against a coup attempt by year-end 2026. Credible reporting has documented no coordinated military or elite effort meeting the market’s definition of an attempt. Remaining uncertainty stems from opaque succession dynamics or sudden external shocks that could fracture elite cohesion, though such developments have not materialized in verifiable form.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$155,515Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained anti-corruption purges within the People’s Liberation Army and Central Military Commission have removed dozens of senior officers since 2025, including multiple vice chairmen, leaving a highly centralized command structure loyal to the top leadership. This consolidation, alongside routine signals of party discipline ahead of the 2027 national congress, underpins the 96.5 percent trader consensus against a coup attempt by year-end 2026. Credible reporting has documented no coordinated military or elite effort meeting the market’s definition of an attempt. Remaining uncertainty stems from opaque succession dynamics or sudden external shocks that could fracture elite cohesion, though such developments have not materialized in verifiable form.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$155,515Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained anti-corruption purges within the People’s Liberation Army and Central Military Commission have removed dozens of senior officers since 2025, including multiple vice chairmen, leaving a highly centralized command structure loyal to the top leadership. This consolidation, alongside routine signals of party discipline ahead of the 2027 national congress, underpins the 96.5 percent trader consensus against a coup attempt by year-end 2026. Credible reporting has documented no coordinated military or elite effort meeting the market’s definition of an attempt. Remaining uncertainty stems from opaque succession dynamics or sudden external shocks that could fracture elite cohesion, though such developments have not materialized in verifiable form.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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