Trader consensus prices "Nothing" near certainty for the August market because none of the specified resolution triggers materialized by the August 31 deadline. Oil prices stayed well below the $150 threshold, no U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was finalized, the Federal Reserve avoided emergency rate action, and key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb saw no effective closure or shift in territorial control. Routine legislative recesses and the absence of acute flashpoints further limited the chance of sudden developments. While late verification of any single criterion could theoretically alter the outcome, the narrow list of conditions and the passage of the resolution window leave few realistic paths for reversal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRien ne se passe jamais : Août
Rien ne se passe jamais : Août
Rien
>99% chance
$32,677 Vol.
$32,677 Vol.
31 août 2026
Rien
>99% chance
$32,677 Vol.
$32,677 Vol.
31 août 2026
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdfTrader consensus prices "Nothing" near certainty for the August market because none of the specified resolution triggers materialized by the August 31 deadline. Oil prices stayed well below the $150 threshold, no U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was finalized, the Federal Reserve avoided emergency rate action, and key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb saw no effective closure or shift in territorial control. Routine legislative recesses and the absence of acute flashpoints further limited the chance of sudden developments. While late verification of any single criterion could theoretically alter the outcome, the narrow list of conditions and the passage of the resolution window leave few realistic paths for reversal.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
Volume
$32,677Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 6:33 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdfTrader consensus prices "Nothing" near certainty for the August market because none of the specified resolution triggers materialized by the August 31 deadline. Oil prices stayed well below the $150 threshold, no U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was finalized, the Federal Reserve avoided emergency rate action, and key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb saw no effective closure or shift in territorial control. Routine legislative recesses and the absence of acute flashpoints further limited the chance of sudden developments. While late verification of any single criterion could theoretically alter the outcome, the narrow list of conditions and the passage of the resolution window leave few realistic paths for reversal.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law
- Fed emergency rate cut
- Iran targets Ukraine
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf
Volume
$32,677Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 6:33 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Nothing" near certainty for the August market because none of the specified resolution triggers materialized by the August 31 deadline. Oil prices stayed well below the $150 threshold, no U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire was finalized, the Federal Reserve avoided emergency rate action, and key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb saw no effective closure or shift in territorial control. Routine legislative recesses and the absence of acute flashpoints further limited the chance of sudden developments. While late verification of any single criterion could theoretically alter the outcome, the narrow list of conditions and the passage of the resolution window leave few realistic paths for reversal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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