Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, backed by the seat's Democratic lean and his unopposed primary win. Nonpartisan ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's partisan voter index and Conaway's 2024 victory margin. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and former NYPD officer who won a contested June primary, faces structural headwinds in fundraising and voter registration. Recent bipartisan legislation introduced by Conaway on Medicare prior authorizations has added visibility without altering the competitive landscape. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district's historical voting patterns, though low-probability shifts could still arise from unusually high national turnout swings or late-cycle developments within the final weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNJ-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NJ-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$29,309 Vol.
$29,309 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Herb Conaway (D)
95%
Michael McGuire (R)
6%
$29,309 Vol.
$29,309 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Herb Conaway (D)
$13,546 Vol.
95%
Michael McGuire (R)
$15,763 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, backed by the seat's Democratic lean and his unopposed primary win. Nonpartisan ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's partisan voter index and Conaway's 2024 victory margin. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and former NYPD officer who won a contested June primary, faces structural headwinds in fundraising and voter registration. Recent bipartisan legislation introduced by Conaway on Medicare prior authorizations has added visibility without altering the competitive landscape. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district's historical voting patterns, though low-probability shifts could still arise from unusually high national turnout swings or late-cycle developments within the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$29,309Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, backed by the seat's Democratic lean and his unopposed primary win. Nonpartisan ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's partisan voter index and Conaway's 2024 victory margin. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and former NYPD officer who won a contested June primary, faces structural headwinds in fundraising and voter registration. Recent bipartisan legislation introduced by Conaway on Medicare prior authorizations has added visibility without altering the competitive landscape. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district's historical voting patterns, though low-probability shifts could still arise from unusually high national turnout swings or late-cycle developments within the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,309Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, backed by the seat's Democratic lean and his unopposed primary win. Nonpartisan ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's partisan voter index and Conaway's 2024 victory margin. Republican nominee Michael McGuire, a Marine veteran and former NYPD officer who won a contested June primary, faces structural headwinds in fundraising and voter registration. Recent bipartisan legislation introduced by Conaway on Medicare prior authorizations has added visibility without altering the competitive landscape. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district's historical voting patterns, though low-probability shifts could still arise from unusually high national turnout swings or late-cycle developments within the final weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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