**Trader consensus on "No" for a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 rests on the absence of any qualifying events through early September and the inherent rarity of such colossal eruptions.** Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through March 2026 list dozens of eruptions worldwide, with maximum VEIs of 4 (e.g., Semeru, Manam) and most at 2–3 or lower; ongoing activity at sites like Anak Krakatau, Etna, Kīlauea, and Semeru remains modest, producing ash plumes under 10–16 km with limited ejecta volumes. VEI 6 events require ≥10 km³ dense-rock equivalent and plumes exceeding 30 km—occurring on average every 50–100 years—while calderas such as Yellowstone show no imminent signs per recent USGS analyses. With only months remaining and continuous global monitoring by agencies like USGS, GVP, and national observatories, escalation to VEI 6 before year-end would demand rapid, undetected intensification at an unmonitored or rapidly evolving system, a low-probability scenario given current data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉruption volcanique majeure (VEI ≥6) en 2026 ?
Éruption volcanique majeure (VEI ≥6) en 2026 ?
Oui
9% chance
$146,452 Vol.
$146,452 Vol.
30 mars 2027
Oui
9% chance
$146,452 Vol.
$146,452 Vol.
30 mars 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus on "No" for a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 rests on the absence of any qualifying events through early September and the inherent rarity of such colossal eruptions.** Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through March 2026 list dozens of eruptions worldwide, with maximum VEIs of 4 (e.g., Semeru, Manam) and most at 2–3 or lower; ongoing activity at sites like Anak Krakatau, Etna, Kīlauea, and Semeru remains modest, producing ash plumes under 10–16 km with limited ejecta volumes. VEI 6 events require ≥10 km³ dense-rock equivalent and plumes exceeding 30 km—occurring on average every 50–100 years—while calderas such as Yellowstone show no imminent signs per recent USGS analyses. With only months remaining and continuous global monitoring by agencies like USGS, GVP, and national observatories, escalation to VEI 6 before year-end would demand rapid, undetected intensification at an unmonitored or rapidly evolving system, a low-probability scenario given current data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$146,452Date de fin
31 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus on "No" for a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 rests on the absence of any qualifying events through early September and the inherent rarity of such colossal eruptions.** Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through March 2026 list dozens of eruptions worldwide, with maximum VEIs of 4 (e.g., Semeru, Manam) and most at 2–3 or lower; ongoing activity at sites like Anak Krakatau, Etna, Kīlauea, and Semeru remains modest, producing ash plumes under 10–16 km with limited ejecta volumes. VEI 6 events require ≥10 km³ dense-rock equivalent and plumes exceeding 30 km—occurring on average every 50–100 years—while calderas such as Yellowstone show no imminent signs per recent USGS analyses. With only months remaining and continuous global monitoring by agencies like USGS, GVP, and national observatories, escalation to VEI 6 before year-end would demand rapid, undetected intensification at an unmonitored or rapidly evolving system, a low-probability scenario given current data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$146,452Date de fin
31 mars 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on "No" for a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 rests on the absence of any qualifying events through early September and the inherent rarity of such colossal eruptions.** Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through March 2026 list dozens of eruptions worldwide, with maximum VEIs of 4 (e.g., Semeru, Manam) and most at 2–3 or lower; ongoing activity at sites like Anak Krakatau, Etna, Kīlauea, and Semeru remains modest, producing ash plumes under 10–16 km with limited ejecta volumes. VEI 6 events require ≥10 km³ dense-rock equivalent and plumes exceeding 30 km—occurring on average every 50–100 years—while calderas such as Yellowstone show no imminent signs per recent USGS analyses. With only months remaining and continuous global monitoring by agencies like USGS, GVP, and national observatories, escalation to VEI 6 before year-end would demand rapid, undetected intensification at an unmonitored or rapidly evolving system, a low-probability scenario given current data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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