Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. The seat's consistent Democratic performance, reflected in its solid-D rating from forecasters, combines with Auchincloss's incumbency advantages, substantial fundraising edge, and recent primary victory over challenger Jason Poulos on September 1. Republican nominee Tom Stalcup advanced unopposed but faces the district's structural barriers and historical margins favoring Democrats. Trader consensus at 97 percent for Auchincloss aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the outcome, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$47,249 Vol.
$47,249 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
1%
$47,249 Vol.
$47,249 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
$23,504 Vol.
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
$23,745 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. The seat's consistent Democratic performance, reflected in its solid-D rating from forecasters, combines with Auchincloss's incumbency advantages, substantial fundraising edge, and recent primary victory over challenger Jason Poulos on September 1. Republican nominee Tom Stalcup advanced unopposed but faces the district's structural barriers and historical margins favoring Democrats. Trader consensus at 97 percent for Auchincloss aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the outcome, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$47,249Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. The seat's consistent Democratic performance, reflected in its solid-D rating from forecasters, combines with Auchincloss's incumbency advantages, substantial fundraising edge, and recent primary victory over challenger Jason Poulos on September 1. Republican nominee Tom Stalcup advanced unopposed but faces the district's structural barriers and historical margins favoring Democrats. Trader consensus at 97 percent for Auchincloss aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the outcome, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,249Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. The seat's consistent Democratic performance, reflected in its solid-D rating from forecasters, combines with Auchincloss's incumbency advantages, substantial fundraising edge, and recent primary victory over challenger Jason Poulos on September 1. Republican nominee Tom Stalcup advanced unopposed but faces the district's structural barriers and historical margins favoring Democrats. Trader consensus at 97 percent for Auchincloss aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the outcome, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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