Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District race, reflected in trader consensus favoring her reelection on November 3. The district’s consistent Democratic tilt, demonstrated by her 66.5 percent victory in 2024 and Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point presidential margin that year, underpins the positioning. Tokuda secured over 91 percent in the August Democratic primary, while Republican Brenton Awa advanced unopposed from his primary as state senate minority leader. Her substantial fundraising edge—more than $800,000 raised with hundreds of thousands in cash reserves versus Awa’s roughly $122,000—further solidifies the gap. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic. Potential shifts remain limited but could arise from late national political realignments, unexpected outside spending, or unforeseen candidate developments in the final weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHI-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
HI-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$68,800 Vol.
$68,800 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jill Tokuda (D)
95%
Brenton Awa (R)
5%
$68,800 Vol.
$68,800 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jill Tokuda (D)
$43,459 Vol.
95%
Brenton Awa (R)
$25,341 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District race, reflected in trader consensus favoring her reelection on November 3. The district’s consistent Democratic tilt, demonstrated by her 66.5 percent victory in 2024 and Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point presidential margin that year, underpins the positioning. Tokuda secured over 91 percent in the August Democratic primary, while Republican Brenton Awa advanced unopposed from his primary as state senate minority leader. Her substantial fundraising edge—more than $800,000 raised with hundreds of thousands in cash reserves versus Awa’s roughly $122,000—further solidifies the gap. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic. Potential shifts remain limited but could arise from late national political realignments, unexpected outside spending, or unforeseen candidate developments in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$68,800Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District race, reflected in trader consensus favoring her reelection on November 3. The district’s consistent Democratic tilt, demonstrated by her 66.5 percent victory in 2024 and Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point presidential margin that year, underpins the positioning. Tokuda secured over 91 percent in the August Democratic primary, while Republican Brenton Awa advanced unopposed from his primary as state senate minority leader. Her substantial fundraising edge—more than $800,000 raised with hundreds of thousands in cash reserves versus Awa’s roughly $122,000—further solidifies the gap. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic. Potential shifts remain limited but could arise from late national political realignments, unexpected outside spending, or unforeseen candidate developments in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$68,800Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda holds a commanding lead in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District race, reflected in trader consensus favoring her reelection on November 3. The district’s consistent Democratic tilt, demonstrated by her 66.5 percent victory in 2024 and Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point presidential margin that year, underpins the positioning. Tokuda secured over 91 percent in the August Democratic primary, while Republican Brenton Awa advanced unopposed from his primary as state senate minority leader. Her substantial fundraising edge—more than $800,000 raised with hundreds of thousands in cash reserves versus Awa’s roughly $122,000—further solidifies the gap. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest solid or safe Democratic. Potential shifts remain limited but could arise from late national political realignments, unexpected outside spending, or unforeseen candidate developments in the final weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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