Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary by defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole with roughly 60% of the vote, preserving his position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District. The Honolulu-centered seat carries a D+13 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, supporting trader consensus that favors Case at 95.6% implied probability over Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic based on the district's voting history and Case's established general-election performance. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited to low-probability events such as candidate withdrawal, significant health developments, or unforeseen national political shocks before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHI-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
HI-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$41,161 Vol.
$41,161 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Ed Case (D)
96%
Adriel Lam (R)
4%
$41,161 Vol.
$41,161 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,163 Vol.
96%
Adriel Lam (R)
$25,998 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary by defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole with roughly 60% of the vote, preserving his position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District. The Honolulu-centered seat carries a D+13 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, supporting trader consensus that favors Case at 95.6% implied probability over Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic based on the district's voting history and Case's established general-election performance. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited to low-probability events such as candidate withdrawal, significant health developments, or unforeseen national political shocks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$41,161Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary by defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole with roughly 60% of the vote, preserving his position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District. The Honolulu-centered seat carries a D+13 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, supporting trader consensus that favors Case at 95.6% implied probability over Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic based on the district's voting history and Case's established general-election performance. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited to low-probability events such as candidate withdrawal, significant health developments, or unforeseen national political shocks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,161Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 8 primary by defeating state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole with roughly 60% of the vote, preserving his position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District. The Honolulu-centered seat carries a D+13 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, supporting trader consensus that favors Case at 95.6% implied probability over Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic based on the district's voting history and Case's established general-election performance. Late developments capable of shifting odds remain limited to low-probability events such as candidate withdrawal, significant health developments, or unforeseen national political shocks before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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