Mike Derry holds a commanding lead in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market due to the riding's established United Conservative Party dominance in suburban southwest Calgary, where the party captured over 56% in the prior general election. The seat became vacant after incumbent Rebecca Schulz resigned in May 2026, prompting a September 14 vote; Derry secured the UCP nomination in June after defeating city councillor Dan McLean and has received consistent support from Premier Danielle Smith and cabinet ministers during the campaign. The main challenger, NDP candidate Kyle Campbell, faces structural headwinds in this conservative-leaning district amid advance voting now underway. Minor-party candidates including Kyle Joseph, John Roggeveen, and independents register negligible support. While late shifts in turnout or unforeseen events could theoretically narrow the gap, the current trader consensus aligns with the riding's partisan baseline and limited time remaining before polls close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMike Derry 94%
Kyle Campbell 4.0%
John Roggeveen <1%
Kyle Joseph <1%
$21,588 Vol.
$21,588 Vol.
Mike Derry
94%
Kyle Campbell
4%
John Roggeveen
<1%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
Mike Derry 94%
Kyle Campbell 4.0%
John Roggeveen <1%
Kyle Joseph <1%
$21,588 Vol.
$21,588 Vol.
Mike Derry
94%
Kyle Campbell
4%
John Roggeveen
<1%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Mike Derry holds a commanding lead in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market due to the riding's established United Conservative Party dominance in suburban southwest Calgary, where the party captured over 56% in the prior general election. The seat became vacant after incumbent Rebecca Schulz resigned in May 2026, prompting a September 14 vote; Derry secured the UCP nomination in June after defeating city councillor Dan McLean and has received consistent support from Premier Danielle Smith and cabinet ministers during the campaign. The main challenger, NDP candidate Kyle Campbell, faces structural headwinds in this conservative-leaning district amid advance voting now underway. Minor-party candidates including Kyle Joseph, John Roggeveen, and independents register negligible support. While late shifts in turnout or unforeseen events could theoretically narrow the gap, the current trader consensus aligns with the riding's partisan baseline and limited time remaining before polls close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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