Persistent opposition from G7 members, sustained through repeated joint statements reaffirming sanctions and support for Ukraine’s sovereignty into 2026, drives the 97.7% implied probability against Russia rejoining before 2027. Unanimous consent among the seven current members is required for readmission, and European leaders including Germany’s chancellor and France’s president have conditioned any return on substantial concessions tied to ending the Ukraine conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated Moscow has no interest in returning, citing the group’s declining share of global GDP and favoring platforms such as BRICS and the G20 instead. Although U.S. President Trump has advocated readmission as part of peace efforts, this has not altered the group’s stance. A negotiated Ukraine settlement addressing territorial and security issues or abrupt leadership shifts among members remain the primary developments that could still alter probabilities before the December 2026 deadline.