Matt Little secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District after winning a competitive August primary, positioning him as the clear frontrunner in the open seat race against Republican Eric Pratt. The district’s recent electoral history, including Democratic performance in suburban and exurban areas south of the Twin Cities, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, citing structural advantages and limited recent polling showing a modest lead. Pratt’s unopposed nomination and background as a state senator provide a base, yet the absence of major late-breaking developments or shifts in turnout patterns sustains the current pricing. Events such as national economic conditions, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Republican mobilization could still narrow the gap before the November general election.