Recent polling averages show Democratic nominee Bobby Pulido leading incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz by 5–8 points among likely voters in Texas’s 15th Congressional District, a shift that has driven trader consensus toward Pulido at 88.5%. Redistricting adopted in 2025 placed roughly 80% new territory in the seat, reducing De La Cruz’s prior familiarity while leaving the district with a Republican presidential lean from 2024. Pulido’s profile as a Tejano music artist has supported strong name recognition and competitive fundraising totals exceeding $6 million, matching or exceeding the incumbent’s pace in recent quarters. Late-October surveys from Texas Southern University and others have reinforced the lead, while Republican attacks have shown limited movement in available data. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with early voting already concluded.