The April 2026 split, triggered by Megan Thee Stallion’s public accusations of infidelity and lack of respect, remains the dominant factor keeping the “No” outcome at 73% implied probability. In her September 9 InStyle cover story, the rapper described the nine-month relationship as “very rough,” saying she felt constantly “on edge” and was “losing myself” while trying to fit into Thompson’s life. She stressed that trust, fidelity, and equality are non-negotiables and confirmed she is now focused on reclaiming her independence rather than reconciliation. No credible reports of renewed contact or engagement plans have surfaced in the five months since the breakup, and her recent comments reinforce a clear path of moving forward separately. Traders appear to view any late-2026 turnaround as highly improbable given the public acrimony and her stated priorities.