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icon for Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
Politics·Culture

Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?

icon for Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
Politics·Culture

Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?

9% chance
Polymarket
NEW
9% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The 86% market-implied probability for “No” on Luigi Mangione facing trial before 2027 reflects the cumulative effect of repeated scheduling delays and a major August 2026 development that effectively paused the remaining state case.** Mangione’s federal stalking charges were resolved via guilty plea on August 14, 2026, with sentencing set for December 18; that eliminated any federal trial. The parallel New York state murder trial, originally slated for jury selection on September 8, was postponed indefinitely after his attorneys immediately moved to dismiss on double-jeopardy grounds. The state judge ordered prosecutors to respond by October 9 and set the next hearing for December 10—well after the federal sentencing—leaving the case in procedural limbo. Earlier in 2026 the federal trial itself had already been pushed to January 2027 to avoid conflict with the state proceeding. With the double-jeopardy motion now pending and the next substantive state-court date in December, traders see little realistic path for either case to reach a full trial before the new year. The market therefore prices the strong likelihood that Mangione will not stand trial in 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,095
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 4:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The 86% market-implied probability for “No” on Luigi Mangione facing trial before 2027 reflects the cumulative effect of repeated scheduling delays and a major August 2026 development that effectively paused the remaining state case.** Mangione’s federal stalking charges were resolved via guilty plea on August 14, 2026, with sentencing set for December 18; that eliminated any federal trial. The parallel New York state murder trial, originally slated for jury selection on September 8, was postponed indefinitely after his attorneys immediately moved to dismiss on double-jeopardy grounds. The state judge ordered prosecutors to respond by October 9 and set the next hearing for December 10—well after the federal sentencing—leaving the case in procedural limbo. Earlier in 2026 the federal trial itself had already been pushed to January 2027 to avoid conflict with the state proceeding. With the double-jeopardy motion now pending and the next substantive state-court date in December, traders see little realistic path for either case to reach a full trial before the new year. The market therefore prices the strong likelihood that Mangione will not stand trial in 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,095
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 4:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 15% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 15¢, the market collectively assigns a 15% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 17, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?" is 15% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 15% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.