**Current short-range forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C for Tel Aviv on September 11, 2026, with daytime highs around 29–30°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light northwesterly winds.** This aligns with the market’s near-even split between the 24°C outcome (43.0%) and the 18°C-or-below bin (43.5%), reflecting trader focus on forecast uncertainty rather than a strong consensus for cooler conditions. Mediterranean coastal temperatures in early-to-mid September are typically modulated by sea-surface warmth (still near seasonal peaks), nocturnal radiative cooling under clear skies, and prevailing northwest flow that limits cold-air advection. Historical climatology shows average overnight lows declining from ~23°C early in the month toward 21°C by late September, so the current model consensus sits slightly above the long-term mean. Stronger northerly flow or an unexpected increase in cloud cover could raise the minimum, while clearer skies and lighter winds would favor further cooling toward the lower end of the distribution. Key upcoming catalysts include the next ECMWF and GFS model cycles plus any updates from the Israel Meteorological Service, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C within 24–48 hours. Traders appear to be pricing the balance between the most-likely model solution near 24°C and the tail risk of a cooler realization, consistent with the closely matched leading probabilities.