Recent forecast models from sources like the South African Weather Service and international ensembles point to overnight minimum temperatures in Cape Town on September 11 near 14–15°C under southeasterly winds of 25–35 km/h and variable cloud cover. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared to clearer nights while the adjacent Atlantic moderates extremes, keeping values above the long-term September average low near 12°C. Persistent onshore flow and partial cloudiness reduce the chance of sharper drops below 13°C or rises above 16°C, creating the tight spread in market-implied odds between the 14°C and 15°C buckets. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 24 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 11?
20°C or higher 85%
10°C or below 83%
11°C 38%
12°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
10°C or below
83%
11°C
38%
12°C
38%
13°C
25%
14°C
28%
15°C
28%
16°C
21%
17°C
8%
18°C
38%
19°C
38%
20°C or higher
85%
20°C or higher 85%
10°C or below 83%
11°C 38%
12°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
83%
11°C
$0 Vol.
38%
12°C
$0 Vol.
38%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
8%
18°C
$0 Vol.
38%
19°C
$0 Vol.
38%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the South African Weather Service and international ensembles point to overnight minimum temperatures in Cape Town on September 11 near 14–15°C under southeasterly winds of 25–35 km/h and variable cloud cover. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared to clearer nights while the adjacent Atlantic moderates extremes, keeping values above the long-term September average low near 12°C. Persistent onshore flow and partial cloudiness reduce the chance of sharper drops below 13°C or rises above 16°C, creating the tight spread in market-implied odds between the 14°C and 15°C buckets. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 24 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the South African Weather Service and international ensembles point to overnight minimum temperatures in Cape Town on September 11 near 14–15°C under southeasterly winds of 25–35 km/h and variable cloud cover. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared to clearer nights while the adjacent Atlantic moderates extremes, keeping values above the long-term September average low near 12°C. Persistent onshore flow and partial cloudiness reduce the chance of sharper drops below 13°C or rises above 16°C, creating the tight spread in market-implied odds between the 14°C and 15°C buckets. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 24 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources like the South African Weather Service and international ensembles point to overnight minimum temperatures in Cape Town on September 11 near 14–15°C under southeasterly winds of 25–35 km/h and variable cloud cover. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared to clearer nights while the adjacent Atlantic moderates extremes, keeping values above the long-term September average low near 12°C. Persistent onshore flow and partial cloudiness reduce the chance of sharper drops below 13°C or rises above 16°C, creating the tight spread in market-implied odds between the 14°C and 15°C buckets. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 24 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions