The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell—initiated earlier that year over his June 2025 Senate testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovation costs now estimated near $2.5 billion—remains the dominant factor anchoring near-zero implied probabilities of federal charges through year-end. Prosecutors cited insufficient evidence after a judge quashed subpoenas, referring the matter to the Fed inspector general amid explicit political friction over monetary policy independence and resistance to administration rate preferences. With Powell’s chair term concluded and Kevin Warsh installed as successor, no fresh investigative activity or congressional catalysts have emerged to alter trader consensus. Any future IG findings could theoretically reopen scrutiny, though historical precedent and the probe’s documented lack of criminal findings continue to support minimal market-implied odds of indictment.