Above-average Western North Pacific activity through September 2026, including multiple confirmed landfalls by systems such as Maysak, Bavi, Dolphin, and Saudel, has driven trader consensus toward more than eight total Chinese landfalls for the year. China’s National Climate Center and similar agencies projected 7–9 impacts, exceeding the long-term average of roughly seven, amid an early surge of named storms and favorable steering patterns linked to subtropical high positioning. El Niño development in the latter half of the season could further enhance genesis and direct more systems toward East Asia while supporting greater intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Remaining September–October formation windows, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus from CMA and JMA continue to shape probabilities ahead of final CMA best-track resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 72%
8 21%
7 4.6%
Fewer than 5 <1%
$36,251 Vol.
$36,251 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
<1%
5
<1%
6
<1%
7
5%
8
21%
Greater than 8
72%
Greater than 8 72%
8 21%
7 4.6%
Fewer than 5 <1%
$36,251 Vol.
$36,251 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$1,469 Vol.
<1%
5
$4,470 Vol.
<1%
6
$3,272 Vol.
<1%
7
$4,428 Vol.
5%
8
$8,075 Vol.
21%
Greater than 8
$14,538 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average Western North Pacific activity through September 2026, including multiple confirmed landfalls by systems such as Maysak, Bavi, Dolphin, and Saudel, has driven trader consensus toward more than eight total Chinese landfalls for the year. China’s National Climate Center and similar agencies projected 7–9 impacts, exceeding the long-term average of roughly seven, amid an early surge of named storms and favorable steering patterns linked to subtropical high positioning. El Niño development in the latter half of the season could further enhance genesis and direct more systems toward East Asia while supporting greater intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Remaining September–October formation windows, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus from CMA and JMA continue to shape probabilities ahead of final CMA best-track resolution.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$36,251End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-average Western North Pacific activity through September 2026, including multiple confirmed landfalls by systems such as Maysak, Bavi, Dolphin, and Saudel, has driven trader consensus toward more than eight total Chinese landfalls for the year. China’s National Climate Center and similar agencies projected 7–9 impacts, exceeding the long-term average of roughly seven, amid an early surge of named storms and favorable steering patterns linked to subtropical high positioning. El Niño development in the latter half of the season could further enhance genesis and direct more systems toward East Asia while supporting greater intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Remaining September–October formation windows, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus from CMA and JMA continue to shape probabilities ahead of final CMA best-track resolution.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$36,251End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Above-average Western North Pacific activity through September 2026, including multiple confirmed landfalls by systems such as Maysak, Bavi, Dolphin, and Saudel, has driven trader consensus toward more than eight total Chinese landfalls for the year. China’s National Climate Center and similar agencies projected 7–9 impacts, exceeding the long-term average of roughly seven, amid an early surge of named storms and favorable steering patterns linked to subtropical high positioning. El Niño development in the latter half of the season could further enhance genesis and direct more systems toward East Asia while supporting greater intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Remaining September–October formation windows, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus from CMA and JMA continue to shape probabilities ahead of final CMA best-track resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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