Current forecasts from regional meteorological services indicate Tel Aviv will peak near 32°C today, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability on that exact threshold. September climatology for the coastal plain shows typical highs of 29–33°C under stable subtropical high pressure, with minimal day-to-day variability absent major synoptic shifts. Official observations through midday confirm readings tracking this range, and model consensus shows little intensification potential from sea breezes or urban heat effects. A realistic scenario that could alter resolution would require an unexpected late-day surge exceeding 34°C, though current atmospheric profiles and short-term guidance make such an excursion highly improbable before the daily maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 12?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 12?
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$25,614 Vol.
$25,614 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$25,614 Vol.
$25,614 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
28°C or below
$442 Vol.
No
29°C
$835 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,435 Vol.
No
31°C
$8,160 Vol.
No
32°C
$5,653 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$4,277 Vol.
No
34°C
$1,887 Vol.
No
35°C
$320 Vol.
No
36°C
$320 Vol.
No
37°C
$1,228 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$1,059 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from regional meteorological services indicate Tel Aviv will peak near 32°C today, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability on that exact threshold. September climatology for the coastal plain shows typical highs of 29–33°C under stable subtropical high pressure, with minimal day-to-day variability absent major synoptic shifts. Official observations through midday confirm readings tracking this range, and model consensus shows little intensification potential from sea breezes or urban heat effects. A realistic scenario that could alter resolution would require an unexpected late-day surge exceeding 34°C, though current atmospheric profiles and short-term guidance make such an excursion highly improbable before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$25,614End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from regional meteorological services indicate Tel Aviv will peak near 32°C today, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability on that exact threshold. September climatology for the coastal plain shows typical highs of 29–33°C under stable subtropical high pressure, with minimal day-to-day variability absent major synoptic shifts. Official observations through midday confirm readings tracking this range, and model consensus shows little intensification potential from sea breezes or urban heat effects. A realistic scenario that could alter resolution would require an unexpected late-day surge exceeding 34°C, though current atmospheric profiles and short-term guidance make such an excursion highly improbable before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,614End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecasts from regional meteorological services indicate Tel Aviv will peak near 32°C today, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability on that exact threshold. September climatology for the coastal plain shows typical highs of 29–33°C under stable subtropical high pressure, with minimal day-to-day variability absent major synoptic shifts. Official observations through midday confirm readings tracking this range, and model consensus shows little intensification potential from sea breezes or urban heat effects. A realistic scenario that could alter resolution would require an unexpected late-day surge exceeding 34°C, though current atmospheric profiles and short-term guidance make such an excursion highly improbable before the daily maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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