Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources for Shenzhen on September 15, 2026, consistently project a daily maximum near 30–31°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly winds and high humidity near 80%. This aligns with the market’s near-certain 30°C outcome, reflecting convergence between model runs, real-time observations showing afternoon peaks around 30–31°C, and typical late-summer subtropical conditions where cloud cover and moisture limit extreme heating. Historical September averages for the region hover near 30–32°C, providing climatological support. A rapid shift to clear skies or revised official measurements exceeding the threshold could still alter resolution, though current data and timing make such outcomes improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 15?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 15?
30°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$54,490 Vol.
$54,490 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$54,490 Vol.
$54,490 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
26°C or below
$238 Vol.
No
27°C
$408 Vol.
No
28°C
$11,322 Vol.
No
29°C
$9,545 Vol.
No
30°C
$11,403 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$5,869 Vol.
No
32°C
$8,054 Vol.
No
33°C
$4,045 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,795 Vol.
No
35°C
$595 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$214 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources for Shenzhen on September 15, 2026, consistently project a daily maximum near 30–31°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly winds and high humidity near 80%. This aligns with the market’s near-certain 30°C outcome, reflecting convergence between model runs, real-time observations showing afternoon peaks around 30–31°C, and typical late-summer subtropical conditions where cloud cover and moisture limit extreme heating. Historical September averages for the region hover near 30–32°C, providing climatological support. A rapid shift to clear skies or revised official measurements exceeding the threshold could still alter resolution, though current data and timing make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
Volume
$54,490End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources for Shenzhen on September 15, 2026, consistently project a daily maximum near 30–31°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly winds and high humidity near 80%. This aligns with the market’s near-certain 30°C outcome, reflecting convergence between model runs, real-time observations showing afternoon peaks around 30–31°C, and typical late-summer subtropical conditions where cloud cover and moisture limit extreme heating. Historical September averages for the region hover near 30–32°C, providing climatological support. A rapid shift to clear skies or revised official measurements exceeding the threshold could still alter resolution, though current data and timing make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$54,490End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources for Shenzhen on September 15, 2026, consistently project a daily maximum near 30–31°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly winds and high humidity near 80%. This aligns with the market’s near-certain 30°C outcome, reflecting convergence between model runs, real-time observations showing afternoon peaks around 30–31°C, and typical late-summer subtropical conditions where cloud cover and moisture limit extreme heating. Historical September averages for the region hover near 30–32°C, providing climatological support. A rapid shift to clear skies or revised official measurements exceeding the threshold could still alter resolution, though current data and timing make such outcomes improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions