Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Highest temperature in Paris on September 15?

Highest temperature in Paris on September 15?

icon for Highest temperature in Paris on September 15?

Highest temperature in Paris on September 15?

Sep 13

Sep 14

Sep 15

Sep 13

Sep 14

Sep 15

32°C 49%

31°C 26%

33°C 21%

30°C 8%

Polymarket
NEW

32°C 49%

31°C 26%

33°C 21%

30°C 8%

Polymarket
NEW

26°C or below

$5 Vol.

1%

27°C

$10 Vol.

1%

28°C

$25 Vol.

2%

29°C

$122 Vol.

3%

30°C

$359 Vol.

8%

31°C

$1,021 Vol.

26%

32°C

$1,878 Vol.

49%

33°C

$612 Vol.

21%

34°C

$713 Vol.

5%

35°C

$10 Vol.

2%

36°C or higher

$10 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and Météo-France consensus show Paris reaching a peak of 31–33°C on September 15 under mostly clear skies and southwesterly flow, with afternoon temperatures climbing rapidly due to strong solar heating and minimal cloud cover. This positions 32°C as the modal outcome in trader consensus, reflected in its 48.5% implied probability, while nearby values capture residual model spread on exact timing and boundary-layer mixing. The setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 21.6°C and aligns with recent warm anomalies across western Europe. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours, plus any revisions to boundary-layer schemes, will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb

If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.

In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,751
End Date
Sep 15, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from GFS, ECMWF, and Météo-France consensus show Paris reaching a peak of 31–33°C on September 15 under mostly clear skies and southwesterly flow, with afternoon temperatures climbing rapidly due to strong solar heating and minimal cloud cover. This positions 32°C as the modal outcome in trader consensus, reflected in its 48.5% implied probability, while nearby values capture residual model spread on exact timing and boundary-layer mixing. The setup exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of 21.6°C and aligns with recent warm anomalies across western Europe. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours, plus any revisions to boundary-layer schemes, will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb

If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.

In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,751
End Date
Sep 15, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 14?

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 14?

55%
icon for Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 13?

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 13?

100%
icon for Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on September 14?

Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on September 14?

47%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Paris on September 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "32°C" at 49%, followed by "31°C" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Paris on September 15?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Paris on September 15?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Paris on September 15?" is "32°C" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31°C" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Paris on September 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.