Forecast models and real-time observations from agencies including Spain’s AEMET point to a maximum of 36 °C in Madrid on September 15, 2026, under clear skies, light winds, and negligible precipitation risk, producing the market’s near-certain consensus. This value sits well above the 1991–2020 average high of roughly 27 °C for the date and exceeds the all-time September 15 record of 34.3 °C set in 1987. Traders have aligned with the latest high-resolution model runs showing minimal spread and no signs of cooling advection or increased cloud cover through the afternoon peak. A modest downward revision in the final AEMET or ECMWF update, localized measurement differences at official stations, or an unanticipated sea-breeze effect could still shift the verified maximum into the 34–35 °C range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 15?
36°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$36,222 Vol.
$36,222 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
31°C or below
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
31°C or below <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$36,222 Vol.
$36,222 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
31°C or below
$660 Vol.
No
32°C
$549 Vol.
No
33°C
$990 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,678 Vol.
No
35°C
$8,807 Vol.
No
36°C
$8,393 Vol.
Yes
37°C
$9,928 Vol.
No
38°C
$2,731 Vol.
No
39°C
$1,147 Vol.
No
40°C
$138 Vol.
No
41°C or higher
$201 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and real-time observations from agencies including Spain’s AEMET point to a maximum of 36 °C in Madrid on September 15, 2026, under clear skies, light winds, and negligible precipitation risk, producing the market’s near-certain consensus. This value sits well above the 1991–2020 average high of roughly 27 °C for the date and exceeds the all-time September 15 record of 34.3 °C set in 1987. Traders have aligned with the latest high-resolution model runs showing minimal spread and no signs of cooling advection or increased cloud cover through the afternoon peak. A modest downward revision in the final AEMET or ECMWF update, localized measurement differences at official stations, or an unanticipated sea-breeze effect could still shift the verified maximum into the 34–35 °C range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$36,222End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models and real-time observations from agencies including Spain’s AEMET point to a maximum of 36 °C in Madrid on September 15, 2026, under clear skies, light winds, and negligible precipitation risk, producing the market’s near-certain consensus. This value sits well above the 1991–2020 average high of roughly 27 °C for the date and exceeds the all-time September 15 record of 34.3 °C set in 1987. Traders have aligned with the latest high-resolution model runs showing minimal spread and no signs of cooling advection or increased cloud cover through the afternoon peak. A modest downward revision in the final AEMET or ECMWF update, localized measurement differences at official stations, or an unanticipated sea-breeze effect could still shift the verified maximum into the 34–35 °C range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36,222End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Forecast models and real-time observations from agencies including Spain’s AEMET point to a maximum of 36 °C in Madrid on September 15, 2026, under clear skies, light winds, and negligible precipitation risk, producing the market’s near-certain consensus. This value sits well above the 1991–2020 average high of roughly 27 °C for the date and exceeds the all-time September 15 record of 34.3 °C set in 1987. Traders have aligned with the latest high-resolution model runs showing minimal spread and no signs of cooling advection or increased cloud cover through the afternoon peak. A modest downward revision in the final AEMET or ECMWF update, localized measurement differences at official stations, or an unanticipated sea-breeze effect could still shift the verified maximum into the 34–35 °C range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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