Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a September 23 peak of 31–32°C in Beijing, driven by southerly flow maintaining warm advection ahead of an approaching frontal system and generally clear to partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the past week’s warming trend, where daily highs have reached 28–31°C amid above-normal September conditions. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 32°C (41%) and 31°C (26.5%), reflecting the tight clustering of guidance around these values while acknowledging minor spread from local urban heat effects or afternoon cloud timing. Updated short-range model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 23?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 23?
32°C 42%
31°C 32%
33°C 19%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
32%
32°C
42%
33°C
19%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 42%
31°C 32%
33°C 19%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
26°C or below
$699 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$746 Vol.
1%
28°C
$580 Vol.
1%
29°C
$481 Vol.
3%
30°C
$368 Vol.
8%
31°C
$703 Vol.
32%
32°C
$3,411 Vol.
42%
33°C
$1,881 Vol.
19%
34°C
$219 Vol.
4%
35°C
$238 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$84 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a September 23 peak of 31–32°C in Beijing, driven by southerly flow maintaining warm advection ahead of an approaching frontal system and generally clear to partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the past week’s warming trend, where daily highs have reached 28–31°C amid above-normal September conditions. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 32°C (41%) and 31°C (26.5%), reflecting the tight clustering of guidance around these values while acknowledging minor spread from local urban heat effects or afternoon cloud timing. Updated short-range model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,410End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a September 23 peak of 31–32°C in Beijing, driven by southerly flow maintaining warm advection ahead of an approaching frontal system and generally clear to partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the past week’s warming trend, where daily highs have reached 28–31°C amid above-normal September conditions. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 32°C (41%) and 31°C (26.5%), reflecting the tight clustering of guidance around these values while acknowledging minor spread from local urban heat effects or afternoon cloud timing. Updated short-range model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,410End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a September 23 peak of 31–32°C in Beijing, driven by southerly flow maintaining warm advection ahead of an approaching frontal system and generally clear to partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the past week’s warming trend, where daily highs have reached 28–31°C amid above-normal September conditions. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 32°C (41%) and 31°C (26.5%), reflecting the tight clustering of guidance around these values while acknowledging minor spread from local urban heat effects or afternoon cloud timing. Updated short-range model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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