Recent polling consistently places the SPD between 10% and 13% in Berlin, with the most recent surveys from Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen showing 12% and 10% respectively. As the junior partner in the governing CDU-SPD coalition, the party has faced sustained voter dissatisfaction over local governance, including infrastructure challenges and coalition performance since the 2023 election. Support has shifted toward the Linke, AfD, and Greens, leaving the SPD on track for fifth place or lower. With the September 20 election days away and no significant late surge evident in the data, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of exceeding 13%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Over
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling consistently places the SPD between 10% and 13% in Berlin, with the most recent surveys from Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen showing 12% and 10% respectively. As the junior partner in the governing CDU-SPD coalition, the party has faced sustained voter dissatisfaction over local governance, including infrastructure challenges and coalition performance since the 2023 election. Support has shifted toward the Linke, AfD, and Greens, leaving the SPD on track for fifth place or lower. With the September 20 election days away and no significant late surge evident in the data, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of exceeding 13%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volume
$448End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling consistently places the SPD between 10% and 13% in Berlin, with the most recent surveys from Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen showing 12% and 10% respectively. As the junior partner in the governing CDU-SPD coalition, the party has faced sustained voter dissatisfaction over local governance, including infrastructure challenges and coalition performance since the 2023 election. Support has shifted toward the Linke, AfD, and Greens, leaving the SPD on track for fifth place or lower. With the September 20 election days away and no significant late surge evident in the data, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of exceeding 13%.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$448End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling consistently places the SPD between 10% and 13% in Berlin, with the most recent surveys from Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen showing 12% and 10% respectively. As the junior partner in the governing CDU-SPD coalition, the party has faced sustained voter dissatisfaction over local governance, including infrastructure challenges and coalition performance since the 2023 election. Support has shifted toward the Linke, AfD, and Greens, leaving the SPD on track for fifth place or lower. With the September 20 election days away and no significant late surge evident in the data, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of exceeding 13%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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