OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra recently achieved the first “Major Advance” classification on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath benchmark by solving a long-standing open problem in combinatorial social choice, with the model also saturating Tier 4 at 97.6% and contributing to solutions for over 100 research-level problems. These verified results, alongside independent AI-assisted proofs on other open conjectures, have shifted trader focus toward Epoch AI’s Open Problems list, where two items were already marked solved at market creation. Competitive pressure from Claude models and Google DeepMind’s ongoing work adds momentum, while upcoming model iterations and Epoch’s next classification updates through December 31 represent the key near-term catalysts that could confirm an additional solved problem under the market’s resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Oct 15, 2026
October 15
46%
October 31
69%
$80 Vol.
October 15
$0 Vol.
46%
October 31
$80 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra recently achieved the first “Major Advance” classification on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath benchmark by solving a long-standing open problem in combinatorial social choice, with the model also saturating Tier 4 at 97.6% and contributing to solutions for over 100 research-level problems. These verified results, alongside independent AI-assisted proofs on other open conjectures, have shifted trader focus toward Epoch AI’s Open Problems list, where two items were already marked solved at market creation. Competitive pressure from Claude models and Google DeepMind’s ongoing work adds momentum, while upcoming model iterations and Epoch’s next classification updates through December 31 represent the key near-term catalysts that could confirm an additional solved problem under the market’s resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Volume
$80End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra recently achieved the first “Major Advance” classification on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath benchmark by solving a long-standing open problem in combinatorial social choice, with the model also saturating Tier 4 at 97.6% and contributing to solutions for over 100 research-level problems. These verified results, alongside independent AI-assisted proofs on other open conjectures, have shifted trader focus toward Epoch AI’s Open Problems list, where two items were already marked solved at market creation. Competitive pressure from Claude models and Google DeepMind’s ongoing work adds momentum, while upcoming model iterations and Epoch’s next classification updates through December 31 represent the key near-term catalysts that could confirm an additional solved problem under the market’s resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Volume
$80End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra recently achieved the first “Major Advance” classification on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath benchmark by solving a long-standing open problem in combinatorial social choice, with the model also saturating Tier 4 at 97.6% and contributing to solutions for over 100 research-level problems. These verified results, alongside independent AI-assisted proofs on other open conjectures, have shifted trader focus toward Epoch AI’s Open Problems list, where two items were already marked solved at market creation. Competitive pressure from Claude models and Google DeepMind’s ongoing work adds momentum, while upcoming model iterations and Epoch’s next classification updates through December 31 represent the key near-term catalysts that could confirm an additional solved problem under the market’s resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions