The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes drives the 95% market-implied probability of none occurring before 2027, with only five confirmed events worldwide since 1900 and recurrence intervals typically spanning decades to centuries on major subduction zones. USGS data and global catalogs confirm no such quake since the 2011 Tohoku event, while 2025–2026 activity has remained below 8.8, consistent with the long-term average of roughly 1–3 events per century. Current seismic monitoring shows no anomalous strain accumulation or foreshock patterns that would signal an imminent full-margin rupture. A realistic shift could occur only through an unexpected megathrust failure on a high-strain segment such as Cascadia or Nankai within the remaining months, though historical base rates and the absence of precursors make this highly improbable before year-end.