National Hurricane Center forecasts and observations confirm Hurricane Lowell's center remained offshore, passing just west of Niihau and Kauai as a Category 2 storm on September 7-8 before accelerating northward and weakening. Steering by a mid-level ridge and interaction with an upper-level low kept the track west of the main Hawaiian Islands, with maximum sustained winds near 110 mph and hurricane-force winds extending only 60-70 miles from the center. This path avoided the geographic boundaries required for landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While minor eastward track shifts could have brought the core closer, updated model consensus and aircraft data ruled out direct landfall by early September, aligning with the 97.4% market-implied probability for "No."
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El huracán Lowell tocará tierra en Hawái?
¿El huracán Lowell tocará tierra en Hawái?
Sí
3% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 sep 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".National Hurricane Center forecasts and observations confirm Hurricane Lowell's center remained offshore, passing just west of Niihau and Kauai as a Category 2 storm on September 7-8 before accelerating northward and weakening. Steering by a mid-level ridge and interaction with an upper-level low kept the track west of the main Hawaiian Islands, with maximum sustained winds near 110 mph and hurricane-force winds extending only 60-70 miles from the center. This path avoided the geographic boundaries required for landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While minor eastward track shifts could have brought the core closer, updated model consensus and aircraft data ruled out direct landfall by early September, aligning with the 97.4% market-implied probability for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
Mercado abierto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Volumen
$890Fecha de finalización
13 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".National Hurricane Center forecasts and observations confirm Hurricane Lowell's center remained offshore, passing just west of Niihau and Kauai as a Category 2 storm on September 7-8 before accelerating northward and weakening. Steering by a mid-level ridge and interaction with an upper-level low kept the track west of the main Hawaiian Islands, with maximum sustained winds near 110 mph and hurricane-force winds extending only 60-70 miles from the center. This path avoided the geographic boundaries required for landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While minor eastward track shifts could have brought the core closer, updated model consensus and aircraft data ruled out direct landfall by early September, aligning with the 97.4% market-implied probability for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
Volumen
$890Fecha de finalización
13 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...National Hurricane Center forecasts and observations confirm Hurricane Lowell's center remained offshore, passing just west of Niihau and Kauai as a Category 2 storm on September 7-8 before accelerating northward and weakening. Steering by a mid-level ridge and interaction with an upper-level low kept the track west of the main Hawaiian Islands, with maximum sustained winds near 110 mph and hurricane-force winds extending only 60-70 miles from the center. This path avoided the geographic boundaries required for landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While minor eastward track shifts could have brought the core closer, updated model consensus and aircraft data ruled out direct landfall by early September, aligning with the 97.4% market-implied probability for "No."
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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