The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's pronounced inactivity, driven by developing El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress formation, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall before 2027. NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks project just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) through November, with the season already far below average as of late September and no hurricanes recorded yet. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. mainland remain exceptionally rare, occurring only four times in the historical record since 1851, with none since 2018. While late-season development or unexpected model shifts could theoretically allow rapid intensification near the coast, current steering patterns and ocean-atmosphere conditions make such outcomes highly improbable before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Algún huracán de categoría 5 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Algún huracán de categoría 5 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
4% probabilidad
$142,105 Vol.
$142,105 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
4% probabilidad
$142,105 Vol.
$142,105 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's pronounced inactivity, driven by developing El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress formation, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall before 2027. NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks project just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) through November, with the season already far below average as of late September and no hurricanes recorded yet. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. mainland remain exceptionally rare, occurring only four times in the historical record since 1851, with none since 2018. While late-season development or unexpected model shifts could theoretically allow rapid intensification near the coast, current steering patterns and ocean-atmosphere conditions make such outcomes highly improbable before year-end.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$142,105Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's pronounced inactivity, driven by developing El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress formation, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall before 2027. NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks project just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) through November, with the season already far below average as of late September and no hurricanes recorded yet. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. mainland remain exceptionally rare, occurring only four times in the historical record since 1851, with none since 2018. While late-season development or unexpected model shifts could theoretically allow rapid intensification near the coast, current steering patterns and ocean-atmosphere conditions make such outcomes highly improbable before year-end.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$142,105Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's pronounced inactivity, driven by developing El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress formation, underpins the 96.5% market-implied probability of no Category 5 landfall before 2027. NOAA and Colorado State University outlooks project just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) through November, with the season already far below average as of late September and no hurricanes recorded yet. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. mainland remain exceptionally rare, occurring only four times in the historical record since 1851, with none since 2018. While late-season development or unexpected model shifts could theoretically allow rapid intensification near the coast, current steering patterns and ocean-atmosphere conditions make such outcomes highly improbable before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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