The Pernambuco Senate race for the two seats remains highly competitive with roughly one month until the October 4 vote, as recent Quaest polling shows Marília Arraes (PDT) at 17%, incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) at 14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7% in consolidated first-and-second preferences—within the three-point margin of error. High undecided (27%) and blank/null (18%) shares, combined with voter sensitivity to the parallel gubernatorial contest between Raquel Lyra (PSD) and João Campos (PSB), sustain volatility and limit separation among the top contenders. Traders price Costa and Mendonça Filho as the closest for second place, reflecting their established bases, coalition alignments, and limited recent polling movement, while Arraes appears more anchored toward first. Late campaign shifts on security policy or turnout among left-leaning and right-leaning blocs could still reorder the finish.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHumberto Costa 43%
Mendonça Filho 42%
Marília Arraes 12.3%
Túlio Gadêlha 2.9%
$30,999 Vol.
$30,999 Vol.
Humberto Costa
43%
Mendonça Filho
42%
Marília Arraes
12%
Túlio Gadêlha
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
2%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Humberto Costa 43%
Mendonça Filho 42%
Marília Arraes 12.3%
Túlio Gadêlha 2.9%
$30,999 Vol.
$30,999 Vol.
Humberto Costa
43%
Mendonça Filho
42%
Marília Arraes
12%
Túlio Gadêlha
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
2%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pernambuco Senate race for the two seats remains highly competitive with roughly one month until the October 4 vote, as recent Quaest polling shows Marília Arraes (PDT) at 17%, incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) at 14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 11%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 7% in consolidated first-and-second preferences—within the three-point margin of error. High undecided (27%) and blank/null (18%) shares, combined with voter sensitivity to the parallel gubernatorial contest between Raquel Lyra (PSD) and João Campos (PSB), sustain volatility and limit separation among the top contenders. Traders price Costa and Mendonça Filho as the closest for second place, reflecting their established bases, coalition alignments, and limited recent polling movement, while Arraes appears more anchored toward first. Late campaign shifts on security policy or turnout among left-leaning and right-leaning blocs could still reorder the finish.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?
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¿Obtendrá Leila do Vôlei la segunda mayor cantidad de votos en las elecciones al Senado del Distrito Federal en 2026?
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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