Incumbent Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the NY-19 House race, with traders assigning him a 94 percent implied probability, driven by national Republican organizations withdrawing support in early September. The Congressional Leadership Fund canceled millions in ad reservations, and the NRCC removed Peter Oberacker from its priority program after reports surfaced of a 2015 social media post by the GOP nominee. Riley maintains a substantial fundraising edge and benefits from updated nonpartisan ratings shifting the Hudson Valley district to Likely Democratic. Oberacker secured the nomination comfortably in the June primary but now faces a resource shortfall. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments affecting Riley, such as unforeseen scandals or sharp national shifts in voter sentiment before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-19
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-19
$20,918 Vol.
$20,918 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Josh Riley (D)
95%
Peter Oberacker (R)
5%
$20,918 Vol.
$20,918 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Josh Riley (D)
$10,125 Vol.
95%
Peter Oberacker (R)
$10,793 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the NY-19 House race, with traders assigning him a 94 percent implied probability, driven by national Republican organizations withdrawing support in early September. The Congressional Leadership Fund canceled millions in ad reservations, and the NRCC removed Peter Oberacker from its priority program after reports surfaced of a 2015 social media post by the GOP nominee. Riley maintains a substantial fundraising edge and benefits from updated nonpartisan ratings shifting the Hudson Valley district to Likely Democratic. Oberacker secured the nomination comfortably in the June primary but now faces a resource shortfall. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments affecting Riley, such as unforeseen scandals or sharp national shifts in voter sentiment before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volumen
$20,918Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the NY-19 House race, with traders assigning him a 94 percent implied probability, driven by national Republican organizations withdrawing support in early September. The Congressional Leadership Fund canceled millions in ad reservations, and the NRCC removed Peter Oberacker from its priority program after reports surfaced of a 2015 social media post by the GOP nominee. Riley maintains a substantial fundraising edge and benefits from updated nonpartisan ratings shifting the Hudson Valley district to Likely Democratic. Oberacker secured the nomination comfortably in the June primary but now faces a resource shortfall. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments affecting Riley, such as unforeseen scandals or sharp national shifts in voter sentiment before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$20,918Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the NY-19 House race, with traders assigning him a 94 percent implied probability, driven by national Republican organizations withdrawing support in early September. The Congressional Leadership Fund canceled millions in ad reservations, and the NRCC removed Peter Oberacker from its priority program after reports surfaced of a 2015 social media post by the GOP nominee. Riley maintains a substantial fundraising edge and benefits from updated nonpartisan ratings shifting the Hudson Valley district to Likely Democratic. Oberacker secured the nomination comfortably in the June primary but now faces a resource shortfall. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments affecting Riley, such as unforeseen scandals or sharp national shifts in voter sentiment before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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