Russia’s Supreme Court ruling on August 10 removed Yabloko from the September 20 State Duma ballot after a Rodina party suit cited alleged copyright issues and foreign financing concerns, ending the liberal party’s registration despite earlier Central Election Commission approval. This procedural barrier, combined with Yabloko’s consistent sub-5% national performance in every proportional vote since 1999 and limited media access under current electoral rules, underpins the near-certain trader view that the party list cannot meet the threshold. Independent surveys had shown modest urban gains before disqualification, yet state-aligned polls and historical patterns reinforced low viability. An appeal succeeding before voting or an unforeseen reversal of the exclusion remain the only narrow pathways that could alter the outcome before results finalize.