Recent candidate declarations and internal tensions within the Parti Socialiste and Place Publique have kept the first-round outright victory tightly balanced ahead of the October 9-10 vote. Multiple contenders, including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann, Olivier Faure, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, and Ségolène Royal, remain in a field that could fragment votes among party members and sympathizers eligible under the electronic, closed-primary rules ratified in August. Ongoing disputes over potential additions like François Ruffin and debate formats have highlighted divisions between camps, limiting any single candidate's consolidation. Trader consensus at 53% for an outright win reflects uncertainty over whether Glucksmann's polling edge will suffice for a majority or if the split sustains a runoff on October 16-17. Key upcoming developments include final candidate lists by mid-September and any late endorsements or withdrawals that could shift momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
54% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 oct 2026
Sí
54% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 oct 2026
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Recent candidate declarations and internal tensions within the Parti Socialiste and Place Publique have kept the first-round outright victory tightly balanced ahead of the October 9-10 vote. Multiple contenders, including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann, Olivier Faure, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, and Ségolène Royal, remain in a field that could fragment votes among party members and sympathizers eligible under the electronic, closed-primary rules ratified in August. Ongoing disputes over potential additions like François Ruffin and debate formats have highlighted divisions between camps, limiting any single candidate's consolidation. Trader consensus at 53% for an outright win reflects uncertainty over whether Glucksmann's polling edge will suffice for a majority or if the split sustains a runoff on October 16-17. Key upcoming developments include final candidate lists by mid-September and any late endorsements or withdrawals that could shift momentum.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Mercado abierto: Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
10 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Recent candidate declarations and internal tensions within the Parti Socialiste and Place Publique have kept the first-round outright victory tightly balanced ahead of the October 9-10 vote. Multiple contenders, including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann, Olivier Faure, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, and Ségolène Royal, remain in a field that could fragment votes among party members and sympathizers eligible under the electronic, closed-primary rules ratified in August. Ongoing disputes over potential additions like François Ruffin and debate formats have highlighted divisions between camps, limiting any single candidate's consolidation. Trader consensus at 53% for an outright win reflects uncertainty over whether Glucksmann's polling edge will suffice for a majority or if the split sustains a runoff on October 16-17. Key upcoming developments include final candidate lists by mid-September and any late endorsements or withdrawals that could shift momentum.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
10 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent candidate declarations and internal tensions within the Parti Socialiste and Place Publique have kept the first-round outright victory tightly balanced ahead of the October 9-10 vote. Multiple contenders, including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann, Olivier Faure, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, and Ségolène Royal, remain in a field that could fragment votes among party members and sympathizers eligible under the electronic, closed-primary rules ratified in August. Ongoing disputes over potential additions like François Ruffin and debate formats have highlighted divisions between camps, limiting any single candidate's consolidation. Trader consensus at 53% for an outright win reflects uncertainty over whether Glucksmann's polling edge will suffice for a majority or if the split sustains a runoff on October 16-17. Key upcoming developments include final candidate lists by mid-September and any late endorsements or withdrawals that could shift momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Ganará Philippe Brun la primera vuelta de las primarias socialistas francesas?
39%
Sí
¿Terminará Philippe Brun en segundo lugar en la primera vuelta de las primarias socialistas francesas?
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¿Ganará Raphael Glucksmann la nominación del Partido Socialista para competir en las elecciones presidenciales francesas de 2027?
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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