Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the New York 18th congressional district race due to his established name recognition, consistent reelection margins in a district with a Democratic lean, and substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million compared to challenger Jacqueline Auringer's under $100,000. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting Ryan's prior victories and the limited profile of the Republican nominee, a political newcomer running unopposed in her primary. A recent poll showed Ryan ahead by double digits, consistent with trader consensus. An October debate and any national midterm dynamics could introduce volatility, though significant shifts would require major developments such as unexpected scandals or turnout surges to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$42,898 Vol.
$42,898 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Pat Ryan (D)
93%
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
6%
$42,898 Vol.
$42,898 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Pat Ryan (D)
$33,521 Vol.
93%
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
$9,377 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the New York 18th congressional district race due to his established name recognition, consistent reelection margins in a district with a Democratic lean, and substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million compared to challenger Jacqueline Auringer's under $100,000. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting Ryan's prior victories and the limited profile of the Republican nominee, a political newcomer running unopposed in her primary. A recent poll showed Ryan ahead by double digits, consistent with trader consensus. An October debate and any national midterm dynamics could introduce volatility, though significant shifts would require major developments such as unexpected scandals or turnout surges to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volumen
$42,898Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the New York 18th congressional district race due to his established name recognition, consistent reelection margins in a district with a Democratic lean, and substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million compared to challenger Jacqueline Auringer's under $100,000. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting Ryan's prior victories and the limited profile of the Republican nominee, a political newcomer running unopposed in her primary. A recent poll showed Ryan ahead by double digits, consistent with trader consensus. An October debate and any national midterm dynamics could introduce volatility, though significant shifts would require major developments such as unexpected scandals or turnout surges to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$42,898Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the New York 18th congressional district race due to his established name recognition, consistent reelection margins in a district with a Democratic lean, and substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million compared to challenger Jacqueline Auringer's under $100,000. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Democratic, reflecting Ryan's prior victories and the limited profile of the Republican nominee, a political newcomer running unopposed in her primary. A recent poll showed Ryan ahead by double digits, consistent with trader consensus. An October debate and any national midterm dynamics could introduce volatility, though significant shifts would require major developments such as unexpected scandals or turnout surges to meaningfully alter the outcome before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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