**Internal power struggles and factional tensions in Iran have shaped trader views on coup attempt markets, keeping implied probabilities low despite regime fragility.** Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, his son Mojtaba assumed the role but has remained largely absent from public view. This vacuum fueled mid-2026 accusations from hardline factions, including the Paydari Front, that President Masoud Pezeshkian, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi orchestrated a "soft coup" or "political coup." Critics claim these officials sidelined parliament and the supreme leader's office by empowering the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing truce negotiations with the U.S., and weakening revolutionary institutions. No coordinated military or security force effort to unlawfully seize control has materialized or been widely reported as a coup attempt through September 2026. Major January 2026 protests were suppressed, external regime-change efforts yielded no internal uprising, and economic pressures plus ongoing conflict have not triggered the threshold for a verifiable attempt under typical market criteria. Traders appear to weigh persistent elite divisions and hardliner warnings against the regime's demonstrated resilience and lack of execution by state actors, with scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months as potential catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$2,126,958 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 de diciembre
14%
$2,126,958 Vol.
31 de diciembre
$85,732 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal power struggles and factional tensions in Iran have shaped trader views on coup attempt markets, keeping implied probabilities low despite regime fragility.** Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, his son Mojtaba assumed the role but has remained largely absent from public view. This vacuum fueled mid-2026 accusations from hardline factions, including the Paydari Front, that President Masoud Pezeshkian, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi orchestrated a "soft coup" or "political coup." Critics claim these officials sidelined parliament and the supreme leader's office by empowering the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing truce negotiations with the U.S., and weakening revolutionary institutions.
No coordinated military or security force effort to unlawfully seize control has materialized or been widely reported as a coup attempt through September 2026. Major January 2026 protests were suppressed, external regime-change efforts yielded no internal uprising, and economic pressures plus ongoing conflict have not triggered the threshold for a verifiable attempt under typical market criteria. Traders appear to weigh persistent elite divisions and hardliner warnings against the regime's demonstrated resilience and lack of execution by state actors, with scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months as potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$2,126,958Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Internal power struggles and factional tensions in Iran have shaped trader views on coup attempt markets, keeping implied probabilities low despite regime fragility.** Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, his son Mojtaba assumed the role but has remained largely absent from public view. This vacuum fueled mid-2026 accusations from hardline factions, including the Paydari Front, that President Masoud Pezeshkian, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi orchestrated a "soft coup" or "political coup." Critics claim these officials sidelined parliament and the supreme leader's office by empowering the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing truce negotiations with the U.S., and weakening revolutionary institutions.
No coordinated military or security force effort to unlawfully seize control has materialized or been widely reported as a coup attempt through September 2026. Major January 2026 protests were suppressed, external regime-change efforts yielded no internal uprising, and economic pressures plus ongoing conflict have not triggered the threshold for a verifiable attempt under typical market criteria. Traders appear to weigh persistent elite divisions and hardliner warnings against the regime's demonstrated resilience and lack of execution by state actors, with scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months as potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,126,958Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Internal power struggles and factional tensions in Iran have shaped trader views on coup attempt markets, keeping implied probabilities low despite regime fragility.** Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, his son Mojtaba assumed the role but has remained largely absent from public view. This vacuum fueled mid-2026 accusations from hardline factions, including the Paydari Front, that President Masoud Pezeshkian, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi orchestrated a "soft coup" or "political coup." Critics claim these officials sidelined parliament and the supreme leader's office by empowering the Supreme National Security Council, pursuing truce negotiations with the U.S., and weakening revolutionary institutions. No coordinated military or security force effort to unlawfully seize control has materialized or been widely reported as a coup attempt through September 2026. Major January 2026 protests were suppressed, external regime-change efforts yielded no internal uprising, and economic pressures plus ongoing conflict have not triggered the threshold for a verifiable attempt under typical market criteria. Traders appear to weigh persistent elite divisions and hardliner warnings against the regime's demonstrated resilience and lack of execution by state actors, with scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months as potential catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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