Xi Jinping maintains firm control over China’s political and military apparatus through sustained purges of senior PLA officers and party elites, including the 2026 removal of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and other top generals for disciplinary violations. These actions, continuing into late 2026 ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, have eliminated potential rivals without triggering visible elite resistance or fragmentation. Trader consensus at 96.5% against a coup attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of credible challenges or public signs of divided loyalties in official proceedings. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden leadership health crisis, severe economic downturn exposing patronage fractures, or an external shock accelerating succession pressures, though none show imminent indicators in current reporting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
4% probabilidad
$155,390 Vol.
$155,390 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
4% probabilidad
$155,390 Vol.
$155,390 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over China’s political and military apparatus through sustained purges of senior PLA officers and party elites, including the 2026 removal of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and other top generals for disciplinary violations. These actions, continuing into late 2026 ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, have eliminated potential rivals without triggering visible elite resistance or fragmentation. Trader consensus at 96.5% against a coup attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of credible challenges or public signs of divided loyalties in official proceedings. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden leadership health crisis, severe economic downturn exposing patronage fractures, or an external shock accelerating succession pressures, though none show imminent indicators in current reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$155,390Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over China’s political and military apparatus through sustained purges of senior PLA officers and party elites, including the 2026 removal of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and other top generals for disciplinary violations. These actions, continuing into late 2026 ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, have eliminated potential rivals without triggering visible elite resistance or fragmentation. Trader consensus at 96.5% against a coup attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of credible challenges or public signs of divided loyalties in official proceedings. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden leadership health crisis, severe economic downturn exposing patronage fractures, or an external shock accelerating succession pressures, though none show imminent indicators in current reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$155,390Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping maintains firm control over China’s political and military apparatus through sustained purges of senior PLA officers and party elites, including the 2026 removal of Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia and other top generals for disciplinary violations. These actions, continuing into late 2026 ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, have eliminated potential rivals without triggering visible elite resistance or fragmentation. Trader consensus at 96.5% against a coup attempt before 2027 reflects the absence of credible challenges or public signs of divided loyalties in official proceedings. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden leadership health crisis, severe economic downturn exposing patronage fractures, or an external shock accelerating succession pressures, though none show imminent indicators in current reporting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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