Traders assign a 99.6 percent implied probability that China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols east of the island, routine PLA aircraft incursions, and joint blockade rehearsals rather than amphibious mobilization. Recent diplomatic friction, including Beijing’s warning to cancel a planned U.S. summit over new Taiwan arms transfers, underscores continued preference for coercion and deterrence signaling over kinetic action. Taiwan’s accelerated defense budgets for drones, missiles, and munitions, alongside combat-readiness drills, further reinforce assessments that Beijing views a near-term assault as high-cost and low-probability. Late-breaking diplomatic breakdowns or miscalculation around U.S. arms approvals could still shift conditions, though no verified indicators of imminent large-scale landing operations have emerged in the past month.